Third-quarter jobs uptick not enough
Bulk were temporary workers hired for August local election
ALTHOUGH the formal sector has added more jobs during the third quarter, after struggling to create employment for most of the year, experts are still not convinced that the positive results indicate a turnaround.
This is so because the bulk of the 93 000 employees who were added during the third quarter were temporary workers hired for the local government elections in August. This once-off boost falls away in the fourth quarter, which is normally lifted by retail trade sales over Christmas and New Year.
The weak economy resulted in 15 000 jobs lost in the first quarter and another 67 000 in the second quarter.
But FNB senior industry analyst Jason Muscat said although the retail sector, which has seen constrained consumer spending, could reflect growth in jobs over the fourth quarter, it was still expected to remain muted in growth when the data is published early next year.
“The retail sector remains relatively weak. Our view is essentially for employment growth to be weak.”
During the third quarter the trade industry, which reflects retail, added 7 000 employees and was closely followed by the creation of 6 000 jobs in the construction and finance and business services industries, Statistics SA said on Monday.
The mining sector reported 2 000 new positions following improvement in commodity prices, which have been languishing on weaker demand globally. A decrease of 16 000 year-on-year was recorded.
The Statistics SA quarterly employment survey excludes the agricultural sector and collects information from a sample of 20 000 businesses with an annual turnover of R300 000.
It differs from the quarterly labour force survey that includes the informal sector, private households, agriculture and small businesses. This sample size is expanded to 30 000.
Nedbank economist Busisiwe Radebe said the quarterly improvement in employment in mining was expected, given the 5.1% improvement in mining GDP during the third quarter.
Employment in the third quarter fell in the transport and manufacturing industries, which each lost 3 000 workers.
Muscat said the manufacturing industry was “battling to get off the ground” off weaker demand for South African goods globally.
This was also reflected in the Reserve Bank’s third-quarter bulletin published last week that indicated low business confidence was hampering the sector’s improvement.
“The jobs market is perpetuating the weakness in the broader economy,” he said.
Radebe said creating jobs would still be difficult in 2017.
Meanwhile, the latest Manpower SA employment outlook survey indicates that employers are cautiously optimistic about hiring in the next three months.
Of the participants, 13% forecast an increase in staff levels and 5% expect an increase. After adjusting the data for seasonal variation, those who were positive dropped to 7%.
Work opportunities are expected to be strongest in electricity, gas and water supply and hospitality. — BDLive