Upload a technology driven future
THE future is upon us if you believe what scientists are saying. It’s scary and it’s only going to get more difficult for us oldies. The source is unknown, but I still trembled when I read it.
There are going to be incredible changes if you believe everything you see here. Read on:
In 1998, Kodak had 170 000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within a few years they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries. Did you think in 1998 that three years later you would never take pictures on film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. They were disappointing for a time, before becoming way superior and mainstream within only a few years.
It will happen again with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next five to 10 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world yet they don’t own any properties.
In the US, young lawyers already don’t find jobs because of IBM’s Watson, a cognitive system enabling a new partnership between people (Chiel: Some already have). Around 2020, the complete vehicle industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car anymore. You will call one with your phone and it will show up at your door and drive you to your destination.
Children in future will never own a car. It will change cities because we will need 90-95% fewer cars.
Worldwide, 1.2-million people die in car accidents each year. We now have one accident every 100 000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10-million kms which will save a million lives a year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Electric cars will be mainstream by about 2020. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last (Does SA really need nuclear power then? No. – Chiel).
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic metre. We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Health: There are companies that will build medical devices (called Tricorders, from Star Trek) that work with your phone to scan your retina and take a blood sample.
You breathe into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any diseases – and it will be cheap.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from R250 000 to R5 500 within 10 years and it became 100 times faster.
Major shoe companies are already printing 3D shoes.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: “In the future, do I think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. Ideas designed for success in the 20th century are doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough which will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed whether they’re telling the truth or not. Wow!
We’re in for interesting times. —