Options shrink in ‘Cyril Spring’
WHAT an amazing week so far. Suddenly all of the constraints that seemed to bind the police and prosecuting authorities under the Zuma administration appear to have been lifted.
Suddenly the Asset Forfeiture Unit is chasing R50-billion in assets and cash, here and offshore, stolen through the Gupta-led state capture conspiracy. President Jacob Zuma’s ally, Richard Mdluli – the suspended head of crime intelligence in the police service – has finally been fired.
Some say it’s the Ramaphosa effect, the "Cyril Spring", that has enabled ordinary officers and officials to find the courage to stand up and do their jobs now that Cyril Ramaphosa has succeeded Zuma as leader of the ANC and, soon(ish), will replace him as head of state.
Others counsel against overenthusiasm about Ramaphosa. The probes and possible arrests in connection with state capture were set in place a while ago, before the ANC’s December leadership vote, and while the president was still pretty convinced the mother of some of his children, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, would win the race and beat Ramaphosa. This anticorruption drive, say Zuma supporters, is his work, not Cyril’s.
But there’s something familiar about all the anti-corruption activity, isn’t there? It’s Zuma throwing friends and supporters under the bus again, hoping to save himself. Sure, Mdluli can go. He was due to retire in 2018. What if a Gupta is arrested and their assets around the world frozen? That friendship is long dead.
There’s obviously Duduzane, Zuma’s son and former Gupta partner, to worry about. Duduzane is in deep trouble but I hear he’s getting the best legal advice money can buy – leading criminal lawyers and advocates. I’d put money on him turning state witness should he need to.
Everyone else will too, now that the asset freezes and arrests are near. Eric Wood, Salim Essa, Brian Molefe and Anoj Singh are all lawyered up and ready to, well, blame each other for everything. It is going to be incredibly cathartic for South Africa.
Will Zuma survive the weekend? The ANC national executive committee (NEC) meeting now underway ends today. It will be followed on Saturday and Sunday by an ANC lekgotla, to which government officials are invited.
And on Tuesday SA’s deputy president and the ANC president, Ramaphosa, leads the South African delegation to the annual diplomatic and intellectual summit in Davos, Switzerland.
People who watch the ANC closely are convinced the NEC meeting will vote on whether or not to recall Zuma from the Union Buildings. Someone will stand up and propose a recall. A seconder will be found. Zuma cannot even mildly be guaranteed a majority.
But if he has his way, he’ll be at that meeting, watching hands go up and watching friends betray him. Former ANC presidents are ex officio members of the NEC. Though they apparently need to be invited to meetings, Zuma will pitch, invitation or no invitation.
This is all nonsense anyway, say supporters. Zuma has no intention of being rudely recalled and he (genuinely) can’t see why he should be. He wants to deliver a legacy-making state of the nation address to open parliament in Cape Town early in February.
The Zuma camp sees Ramaphosa as essentially crippled by the closeness of the leadership vote and has decided the best thing to do is to help Ramaphosa through the first rough months as he consolidates his position before calling an early general election in, say, September, which the ANC, or even Ramaphosa himself, could win. If that sounds patronising, it is, but until Zuma is upended that’s their story.
The Ramaphosa camp, if there is such a thing, is saying no, wait, Zuma can’t survive the weekend. The reason is Eskom. Eskom is bankrupt. It owes R500-billion. It hasn’t been able to publish its financial results for the half-year to September 2017 and doesn’t have enough money to pay January’s salaries.
Unless Zuma goes, and unless the board of Eskom can thus be fired, along with Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown (also lawyering up, surely?) local and international banks are going to stop lending it money. The JSE has threatened to suspend trading in Eskom bonds come January 31 unless it publishes results.
But Eskom can’t publish the truth. The truth would shut it down. Being bankrupt, it is trading illegally. So the only fix is for Zuma to go – and now. Ramaphosa could be president before he takes off for Davos.
On the other hand, Zuma could clear his cabinet of fools in an afternoon and have former deputy finance minister Jabu Moleketi chairing a technically fabulous Eskom board. And still be president when Ramaphosa returns from the Alps.