A SHAKE-UP
Cracks to be patched up in ANC
THE political ructions in the ANC in the North West, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape over the past few weeks are a sobering reminder that Cyril Ramaphosa won his position as head of the ANC with only a 3% margin.
They are also a reminder of the kind of party the ANC is becoming: although it projects itself as a national party with a united national programme, it increasingly reflects a federalised arrangement in which power is exercised through provincial and regional structures.
The dispersed nature of power in the ANC means deals must constantly be brokered between the national leadership – in particular, the president – and the provincial barons who hold power.
This movement towards provincialism is an inevitable result of two things: the national constitution and the structure of the ANC.
The constitution conferred substantial powers on the provinces and gave them control of important areas of government with big budgets.
Also, because of the proportional representation voting system, it made political parties extremely powerful and reduced the direct accountability of public representatives.
The result has been the development of power bases in the provinces. Superimpose on this, the ANC, whose own structure is particularly vulnerable to corruption and capture by strong men or cliques, and the conditions for provincial barons to emerge are even more conducive.
This development was given a good deal more momentum from 2007, when provinces and regions won the power to nominate their own candidates for premier and mayor, rather than these being chosen by the president of the country or the premier.
With that decision, the president of the country in an ANC administration lost significant leverage over the provinces.
In all three troubled provinces this is the dynamic at play.
While the national leadership wants North West premier Supra Mahumapelo to step down, the ANC provincial executive has closed ranks around him; while the national leadership wanted to allow Eastern Cape premier Phumulo Masualle to finish his term, the provincial leadership has forced him to reshuffle his cabinet. It can be expected that soon they may push him out too.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the two ANC factions that warred in the lead-up to the ANC’s December national conference are just as determined to fight for control of the province as they were before, despite a clear injunction for unity from the national leadership.
These provincial ructions also link up to the divisions in the ANC top six, divisions that were there before the conference.
Ramaphosa has to deal with all of this with the utmost care. Neither he nor the ANC’s national executive can call the shots with the expectation that everyone in the provinces will fall into line.
He can also not be totally sure that even his top six officials are wholly committed to implementing their collective decisions.
This is the context in which
Ramaphosa must drive his agenda. While the president is not as strong as might have been imagined, it is important to note that he is slowly getting stronger.
Many provinces and regions have conferences in the next few months. These are an opportunity for the Ramaphosa camp to slowly gain ground by displacing Zuma loyalists and putting friendlier leadership in place. If an ANC congress were held tomorrow, it is likely Ramaphosa would win with a much larger margin than December’s 3%.
The reality, though, will endure: he will always need to take care to keep provincial leaders on side, affirming positions and taking care of their people.
But for Ramaphosa to get stronger slowly is not a sustainable solution for the ANC.
The big issues need to be tackled: the provinces and provincial powers, the voting system and the systemic flaws in the structure of the ANC itself.
Political will for this is in short supply.
It was in 2003 that the Van Zyl Slabbert commission, which had been established by Thabo Mbeki, recommended that in the interests of democracy the electoral system should be reformed to incorporate an element of direct accountability, especially on the election of the president.
It was in 2007 at the ANC’s Polokwane conference that the party resolved to establish a commission tasked to look at the number of provinces and their functions.
And since 2002, ANC intellectuals have been calling for organisational renewal and restructuring.
But the vested interests in the provinces are huge. Therefore, reform, even though it might be a matter of life and death for the party, may not be possible.