ANC support declines by 1.3% – survey

A new poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has shown that support for the ANC is declining ahead of the national elections in May.

The poll revealed that the ANC currently enjoys the support of 54.7% of voters – a 1.3% decline since December. As of February‚ ANC support is down 7.4% from the last election.

“The ANC’s general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF. The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters‚” said Gareth van Onselen‚ the institute’s head of politics and governance.

“Where those voters end up on 8 May will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties. It is clear those 5% to 10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have to one degree or another shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months.”

The poll was conducted telephonically in February. It involved 1‚611 registered voters and was fully representative of voter demographics in the Western Cape and Gauteng. It found that: ● support for the ANC currently stood at 54.7% nationally – down 1.3% since December and 7.4% from the 62.1% the party secured in 2014;

● the DA currently stood at 21.8% nationally – up 3.1% since December but down 0.4% from the 22.2% the party secured in 2014; and

● the EFF currently stood at 12.2% nationally‚ up 1.2% from December and 5.9% from the 6.3% the party secured in 2014.

While Gauteng was currently governed by the ANC‚ the IRR’s research revealed that the party was losing supporters in the province‚ while the EFF’s support was growing.

“In the Western Cape‚ the DA majority is on a knife-edge‚ with smaller parties showing some growth‚” said Van Onselen.

On the Gauteng provincial ballot‚ the poll found that:

● support for the ANC currently stood at 41.6% – down 12% from the 53.6% it secured in the provincial ballot in 2014;

● the DA stood at 32.4% – up 1.6% from the 30.8% it secured in 2014; and

● the EFF stood at 18.2% – up 7.9% from the 10.3% in 2014.

The poll found that the DA had a racially diverse support base‚ with 27.3% black voters‚ 36% white voters‚ 28% coloured voters and 8.6% Indian votes.

It was a very different story for the other parties‚ however.

The ANC’s support base remains primarily black at 96.2%. Their remaining support is made up of 2.2% coloured voters‚ 1.1% white voters and 0.5% Indian voters.

When it comes to the EFF‚ 98.1% of its supporters are black‚ while only 1.3% are coloured‚ 0.4% white and 0.1% Indian.

Van Onselen said the research pointed out that:

● among black voters‚ 68% indicated they would vote ANC‚ compared to 16% for the EFF and 8% for the DA;

● among white voters‚ 71% said they would vote DA‚ compared to 5% for the ANC and 0% for the EFF;

● among coloured voters‚ 67% indicated they would vote DA‚ compared to 13% for the ANC and 2% for the EFF; and

● among Indian voters‚ 72% backed the DA‚ 10% for the ANC and 1% for the EFF.

The ANC’s general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF