Temperature is ‘heading in the wrong direction’

Attempts to turn the climate crisis around are failing, warn experts.

Government pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions put the planet on track for an average 2.8°C rise this century, after "woefully inadequate" progress to curb warming, a United Nations report said.

Representatives from around the world will meet from November 6 to 18 at the COP27 climate talks in Egypt to try to agree pledges to limit warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and ideally to 1.5°C.

Unless strengthened, promises so far will likely lead to a 2.8°C rise in temperature by the end of the century, 0.1°C higher than was estimated last year.

As countries seek to improve on that, some have offered further action provided it is contingent on international financial and technical support.

These "conditional" pledges, if implemented fully, could reduce expected warming to a 2.4°C rise, while unconditional pledges could lead to a 2.6°C rise.

"We still aren't anywhere near enough," UNEP executive director Inger Andersen told reporters. "But we must try. Every fraction of a degree matters."

Global emissions in 2030 are estimated at 58 GTCO2E based on current policies. The gap between pledges and limiting warming to 2C is 15 GTCO2E a year and for 1.5C it is 23 GTCO2E a year.

To achieve 1.5°C, annual emissions must be reduced by 45%.

"We are headed for a global catastrophe. The emissions gap must be filled, starting with COP27 in Egypt," Antonio Guterres, UN secretary-general, said.

According to a separate UN report earlier this week analysing the latest pledges submitted by countries, 2.5°C of warming is likely by the end of the century.

On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organisation said greenhouse gas concentrations climbed at above-average rates to records last year.

Commenting on the reports this week, Bill Collins, professor of climate processes at the University of Reading, said: "All evidence suggests we are heading in the wrong direction."