Tourism data good news for third-quarter GDP
Tourism data for September suggests stronger third-quarter GDP as the number of tourists across the globe and SA increases.
Data released by Stats SA on Monday shows that total income for the tourist accommodation industry increased by 79.3% in September on an annual basis.
From January to September, tourists travelling from overseas and the rest of Africa into the country increased 164.7%.
Activity in the sector is critical to GDP tracking estimates. According to Stats SA, the tourism sector contributed 3.7% to GDP in 2019 (pre-covid), and the sector directly employed 4.7% of the total workforce.
In 2020, the sector saw huge declines in foreign arrivals and revenue. Arrivals decreased by 72.6% that year relative to 2019, or 2,802,320 versus 10,288,593 in 2019, with an estimated further decline to 2.3-million in 2021.
Its contribution to GDP decreased from 3.7% in 2019 to about 1.3% in 2020. The estimated drop in direct employment in the sector exceeded 36% in 2020 compared with to 2019.
But, despite a weak global economic outlook international, tourism appears to be surging, and the hotel sector seems likely to benefit.
Data shows that overseas arrivals were up by 391.4% year on year and those from the rest of Africa rose by 130.3%.
Travellers from Europe made up the largest share of overseas visitors, with those from the UK dominating, followed by Germany and the Netherlands.
But economists warn that even though projections for the sector are positive, downside risks remain.
“These include elevated oil prices feeding into prices of tickets, airspace restrictions and a generally gloomier outlook for world growth weighing on consumers. The ongoing war in Ukraine also remains a significant risk,” Investec economist Lara Hodes said on Monday.
Absa chief economist Peter Worthington said the September activity data came in much stronger than they expected, showing limited damage from record-high load-shedding in the month.
“As a result, we revised our quarter three GDP forecast to 0.7% quarter on quarter in line with our GDP tracking estimate,” he said.