Landslide NZ victory via inclusive approach
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s emphatic election victory is seen as an endorsement of an inclusive brand of leadership that may ripple beyond New Zealand’s borders.
In an age of populism and confrontation, Ardern’s message of empathy and kindness married with skilful crisis management won her Labour Party its biggest share of the vote in more than 70 years. That contrasts starkly with the divisive politics in the US as Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off for the presidency on 3 November.
“Ardern’s approach could be a lesson for other leaders seeking to maximise their support base,” said Zareh Ghazarian, senior lecturer in politics at Monash University, Melbourne. “Not only has she been able to lead the nation through very challenging circumstances, but also successfully communicate an overall vision. In New Zealand it’s about the politics of inclusion.”
Ardern, 40, won international plaudits for her response to the deadly shootings at two mosques in 2019, donning a headscarf as a mark of respect as she mourned with the Muslim community. This year, she’s demonstrated her steel in tackling the pandemic, enacting one of the world’s strictest lockdowns to crush community transmission.
She rode the resulting wave of adulation to secure the first outright majority in parliament since New Zealand introduced proportional representation in 1996. Labour won 49% of the vote and 64 of the 120 seats in parliament. The scale of the win may fuel her global appeal among those who already view her as a standard-bearer for liberal values.
Ardern is now in a position to lead New Zealand’s most left-leaning government in decades but has yet to decide whether to include her ally the Green Party, which wants more action on poverty and climate change.
Supporters want Ardern to push harder on reforms such as tackling inequality and boosting incomes after she failed to deliver on some key promises in her first term. She ditched plans for a capital gains tax that might have addressed the widening gap between rich and poor, while a programme to build tens of thousands of new homes to help fix a housing crisis fell well short of goals.
‘Huge Dilemma’
“It’s going to be a huge dilemma for her, whether to go to the left or stay in that centre ground,” said Lara Greaves, lecturer in New Zealand politics, University of Auckland. “Does she want to try to be a four-term prime minister or does she want to make transformational policy that changes people’s lives?”
Her re-election spells continuity in a nuanced foreign policy towards China. Ardern has tried not to antagonise New Zealand’s largest trading partner while maintaining close ties with the US and other Western allies in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Her focus will be on the economic and social challenges ahead as New Zealand charts a recovery from recession.
The border is expected to remain closed well into 2021, decimating international tourism and education.
Labour said it will impose a 39% tax on income over NZ$180,000 to help pay for the Covid response and keep debt under control. It aims to stimulate investment and create jobs through major infrastructure projects and incentives for small business.
Property Boom
Key to recovery may be a property boom sparked by record-low interest rates that saw house prices climb 7.6% in the past year. That has made it harder for many to enter the housing market. She has ruled out significant tax reforms to address wealth inequality, and given no indication she intends to be more proactive on poverty and homelessness.
Ardern stood out among her Western peers in pursuing an explicit elimination strategy, and imposed one of the strictest nationwide lockdowns. This shuttered the economy but wiped out community spread of the virus, allowing restrictions to be removed sooner than in many other countries. A second outbreak in Auckland was quickly stamped out.
“The way the prime minister has put health before the economy will be of interest, especially for other social democratic leaders around the world,” said Bryce Edwards, a political analyst at Victoria University in Wellington. “They will now see Ardern as the leader of those left parties internationally and they will want to learn from her.”
Asked if she had a message for Americans as they head into their own election, Ardern said it wasn’t her place to comment.
“But my hope as someone who has, of course, a strong interest in politics is that we have elections globally where we try and move beyond the divisive nature that elections can sometimes bring, because that can be damaging for democracy,” she said. Bloomberg DM168