Crushed by the present, the ANC will rely on the past to win the future
With the ANC seemingly under more electoral pressure than ever before, it would only be rational to expect fresh new messaging ahead of the all-important elections, now just a few months away.
But its January 8th statement and the speech by President Cyril Ramaphosa at its birthday celebration in Mbombela offered no evidence of a party that is able to conjure a fresh start. Instead, it will rely on its track record over the past 30 years. This may turn out to be a big, fat mistake.
There appears to be almost nothing new in the 2024 statement, despite its being obvious to almost everyone that the ANC needs to change something – and that the party very much wants to win again.
Right at the start of the published statement is the first indication that the ANC is going to rely on its track record rather than its capacity to change the lives of people in the future. Its first heading is “Celebrating 30 Years of Freedom” and it starts with the adoption of “a transformative Constitution”.
This may also show that the ANC is refusing to make promises that it can improve the lives of people over the shorter term. Or perhaps it believes that it has a duty to defend its track record, which opposition parties are surely going to criticise.
There is much of this reminder of the longterm record in how the ANC has provided access to water and electricity to many people who did not have it before.
Crucially, it also says that “over the last 30 years, South Africa’s young people have benefited from our transformative programmes, a vital part of our work to build a nation of skilled, informed and resilient young people”. It goes on to say that young people have had a big impact on society in terms of issues such as governance, LGBT issues and have “repeatedly pushed us to rethink our politics and ways of doing things”.
This appears to be an important recognition of the importance of the votes of younger people in this election. Although there is undoubtedly a large group of younger people who have benefited from the ANC’S policies, there are many millions who appear almost to be giving up hope. Most of them believe they have virtually no chance of ever gaining a formal job and a sustainable income.
In a way, for the ANC to win younger voters may be almost impossible. These are people who have no memory of apartheid as an oppressive system, even though they are living in an economic system still defined by it. Also, there is stiff competition for the younger vote from the EFF. Its message of revolutionary change may resonate more strongly with these voters.
The ANC is also clearly aware that rolling blackouts could be one of the most important issues ahead of the polls (although there are some indications that the set of crises in our water system could soon overshadow it). That said, it makes no new promises, instead saying that “the overall trend is towards less severe load shedding and better management and communication of outages”.
For a governing party almost to celebrate the “better management” of outages may tell voters all they need to know. The ANC is responsible for load shedding and the failure of the government to resolve it.
The ANC also says that its branches must “campaign to ensure communities pay for services used and support programmes to introduce pay-as-you-go meters and disconnect illegal electricity and water connections”. This is a much softer message than past ones. Perhaps, just perhaps, in an election year, paying for services is not as important as it is in normal times?
It is now also clear that the party sees the introduction of the National Health Insurance system as a vote winner. Ramaphosa made it clear in his speech, as does the written statement, that the NHI will happen.
Considering that those who oppose it are people who benefit from private healthcare, while those who support it rely on government healthcare, there are obviously votes here. However, even if the party does implement it formally this year, almost nothing will change for many years because of the complexity of the system and the sheer amount of change that still needs to happen, never mind the series of legal challenges that are likely to come.
The ANC still has to release its election manifesto, and it is in that document that final promises will be made to voters. But based on the evidence so far, it appears the party may be unable to craft new policies and programmes to win votes.
And this may be a mistake. Many voters want to see their lives improve. They want their future to be better than their past. And so far the ANC appears unable to convince voters it is capable of achieving that.