Party threatens to devour its votes
with massive brand and name recognition. He is wildly popular. Ironically, because of his failed presidency, he resonates with people who feel excluded and live in grinding poverty. He’s like Trump: he plays the victim and that is when he is at his most dangerous. He says, ‘The IEC doesn’t want me to stand for elections.’”
Steenhuisen questioned how MK is funding its election campaign.
“Very little money has been declared, and this party was not started a few months ago. It has branded vehicles, big posters, billboards, expensive T-shirts and an organised system. This points to very good funding. My guess is his money is coming from Russia. This is not a mom-and-pop outfit. We are taking it very seriously.”
Steenhuisen’s Multi-party Charter partner, Actionsa leader Herman Mashaba, disagreed and dismissed MK as a factor outside Kwazulu-natal. “Our country is at risk, but don’t waste a minute reading MK’S manifesto. Look at the growth of the Inkatha Freedom Party. The ANC is in for a shock. I can see us and the DA forming a coalition with the IFP in KZN. The ANC, MK and EFF are all the same thing.”
Actionsa’s leader in Kwazulu-natal, Zwakele Mncwango, said many people are considering voting for MK but do not know what they would be voting for. “These guys would collapse our province. The unrest in July 2021 showed that. They are a criminal enterprise that has broken away from another criminal enterprise. It exists only to serve the interests of Zuma, and he will trade off with anyone as long as they scrap any prosecution against him. He will strike a deal with the ANC.
“It is a two-horse race in KZN: either the Multi-party Charter of IFP, Actionsa and DA, or an MK-ANC-EFF coalition.”
The ANC in the province didn’t want to be drawn on MK. ANC provincial secretary Bheki Mtolo said: “The more we don’t comment on MK’S tribal maleness, the better. Criminals, by their very nature, hate the Constitution, the rule of law and the independent judiciary.”
But during Ramaphosa’s recent visit to Kwazulu-natal, he reportedly urged ANC leaders to “put their shoulders to the wheel”, warning the election “is ours to lose”.
Zuma, an avowed traditionalist and Zulu chauvinist, will try to make inroads into the IFP. Party spokesperson Mkhuleko Hlengwa, however, said the IFP is at the forefront of traditional leadership. Though the IFP might “improve” the Constitution, it would never remove it. As for MK? “We do not pontificate on the performance, or lack thereof, of other organisations or whether or not they will form coalitions.”
Steenhuisen said his worry is “an MK-EFF reverse takeover of the ANC and a purge of
the constitutionalists”.
“That will be doomsday for South Africa. Capital will take flight, and those who can’t leave the country will live in misery. The MK manifesto is a cut-and-paste of Chavez or Zanu-pf. This is a make-or-break election.”
There is increasing evidence of MK cannibalising the ANC. An ANC insider told Daily Maverick: “A lot of ANC people are uncomfortable. They are quietly supporting MK or advising them because some idiots surround Zuma. One of [former ethekwini mayor] Zandile Gumede’s guys, Sandile Mngadi, has moved to MK. The big lady won’t jump now.”
Uncertainty over allegiances has created a feeling of uneasiness in both parties. In February, former Kwazulu-natal provincial government director-general Nhlanhla Ngidi left the ANC to join MK. “The old man [Zuma] invited me to be MK coordinator in KZN,” he told Daily Maverick.
Ngidi said initially there was “a big problem with capacity” in MK, but “things started to take shape, and there was a real belief that we could be the biggest party in KZN or put MK in a strong position if there are coalition talks”.
Ngidi heard rumours that he was regarded as an ANC spy and, on 15 April, he received a letter removing him as provincial MK coordinator. He puts it down to jealousy. “I am not an ANC spy and I challenge anyone to prove that.” He is still number one on MK’S provincial election list and awaits a meeting with Zuma.
Ngidi said “thousands” of ANC members have left the party for MK, but suspicion is rife in both parties. “There is a lot of paranoia. There is very little trust in the ANC and people are waiting.”
Independent researcher Glen Robbins says MK has positioned itself to attract disaffected voters by promoting empowerment and land issues.
“The approach is very Trumpian. They want to broaden their base by tapping into people who have built audiences. But their candidates aren’t wedded to any principle and are clustered around Zuma.
“Like Trump, he doesn’t want to face criminal charges. MK will be a place to go if the National Prosecuting Authority is after you. There is a lot of sympathy for Zuma among ANC members and a strong connection between them, MK and EFF members. They share Whatsapp groups, and many ANC members are hedging their bets and keeping their options open.”
In the 2019 elections, the DA and IFP in Kwazulu-natal each got 14%, the EFF 9% and ANC 55%. Elections analyst Wayne Sussman says the province’s poll outcome is “extremely uncertain”.
“This election is very challenging to assess: are we catching MK on the way up or down? It will take votes from ANC, IFP and EFF. The leading party in KZN will be MK or the ANC, not the DA or the IFP. The placing between the first four could be very close.”
Political analyst Dr Imraan Buccus said, like the EFF, MK uses left-wing rhetoric to mobilise a similar conflagration of interests to the fascists in Europe of the 1930s.
“We are also likely to see a rejection of legal and rational forms of politics in favour of charismatic politics.
“South Africa is in such a deep economic and political crisis, made concrete to us all by mass unemployment, load shedding and the ANC’S failure to lead. It is logical to assume Zuma’s populism has the ideal context to thrive.”
The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection produced a report on the 2019 elections and noted a shrinkage of centre politics in favour of voting shifts to the far left and far right. Some fear this creates fertile ground for Zuma and his sponsors.
Mapungubwe analyst Susan Booysen said MK’S manifesto doesn’t threaten constitutionalism, which is “widely entrenched in the mainstream and is a shining light of how to move beyond fallible politicians”.
“Constitutionalism is a huge part of our political operation. I don’t think Zuma’s little scare is something to worry about. People run to the court, especially when they are bogged down in coalition politics.”
As for MK’S power and prospects, Booysen said there isn’t too much to go on. “Zuma has always been embedded in Zulu nationalism and traditional leaders as part of that cultural orientation. It is natural that he turns to that constituency.
“If his efforts turn out to be sustained, that will be concerning. It is not a national thing now, but if it gets bigger wings, that would be concerning and imply a big turn in South African politics.”
MK’S manifesto launch comes during heightened security concerns about the polls in Kwazulu-natal. Violence monitor Mary de Haas said the manipulation of traditional leaders in the province is historical, and Zuma panders to this constituency.
Though interparty rivalry hasn’t resulted in serious pre-election violence, people are skittish. “This is real and understandable given KZN’S history, the July 2021 riots and the factionalism of the ANC.”
There is a lot of sympathy for Zuma among ANC members and a strong connection between them, MK and
EFF members. They share Whatsapp groups
MK should terrify people. Zuma is not a fringe politician. He is a formidable campaigner with massive brand and
name recognition