Process under way to charter new path

AS THERESA May sets in motion the formal process of Brexit, what will happen next and how soon will divorce proceedings with the EU begin? What happened yesterday? Sir Tim Barrow, the UK’s representative to the EU, delivered a letter to European Council president Donald Tusk from the prime minister as she faced Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for her weekly session of Prime Minister’s Questions. Then what? Britain being the first country to vote to leave the EU, the mechanics of invoking Article 50 are unclear. But as it will be one of the most symbolic moments in Britain’s exit from the bloc – and of May’s premiership – there is no doubt the prime minister will want to make a significant deal.

Last week Tusk said: “When the UK notifies, it is our goal to react with the draft negotiation guidelines for the 27 member states to consider. For this I think we need more or less 48 hours. Leaders will then meet, probably in April, to finalise these,” he said.

What will happen to the pound?

There is no consensus on what Article 50 being triggered means for the pound. Currency experts believe the sterling is going to be volatile when negotiations kick off, although many predict it might not be a shock event.

According to a poll of more than 60 banks and research institutions earlier this month, there will be no dramatic sterling moves. Most economists predict the pound will trade at around $1.23 (R20) against the dollar by the end of March, and drop to $1.21 in the next three to six months.

Some are more pessimistic however, with Deutsche Bank predicting the sterling will plunge by a further 15% to $1.06 against the dollar by the end of the year.

How quickly will the negotiations get going?

Considering it is going to take around four weeks for the negotiating guidelines to be agreed on by the other EU states, it would be safe to claim David Davis, the Brexit secretary, will not be face to face with negotiators in Brussels the day after May triggered divorce proceedings.

The French presidential election will run from April 23 until early May. The negotiations will probably begin shortly after that, meaning less time to negotiate a settlement.

Does the UK leave the EU immediately?

No. Britain will re- main inside the EU for two years. The provisions of Article 50 allow 24 months for a divorce agreement to be reached.

This can be extended if approval is granted and ratified by all member states.

But as soon as May triggered Article 50, the countdown began. If Britain reaches a deal within the two-year time frame granted by Article 50 then expect the UK to be out of the EU by March 2019.

What will happen to EU nationals living in Britain?

May has said she wants an “early agreement” to guarantee their rights. But their status, which has been in a state of limbo since the referen- dum, will not be guaranteed until the other EU states safeguard the rights of British citizens living on the continent. Will Britain have to pay? This will probably be a contentious issue throughout the negotiating period with a figure demanded by the EU member states to settle Britain’s liabilities for EU costs. Michel Barn i e r, the Euro - pean Comm is - sion’s chief Brexit negotiator, has reportedly placed such a bill close to € 60bn (R841bn). However, if Britain were to leave the EU without a settlement, it has been argued the UK would not be legally obliged to contribute towards the budget.

A report from the House of Lords also warned that any calculations on the UK’s socalled divorce bill were “hugely speculative”. But while the amount is uncertain, it seems clear Britain will have a substantial bill to pay.

What are the chances of Britain not getting a deal and crashing out of the EU?