It’s only human… after almost four decades in power
AS LEADER of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe has survived longer than Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union and Mao Zedong in China. If it’s coming to an end – which seems likely, given his apparent inability to emerge from house arrest after the military took charge – it’s worth reflecting on the mistakes he made to end such a remarkable run.
Daniel Treisman, a University of California, Los Angeles, political scientist, argued in a recent paper that most dictators fell for reasons proving that they were all too human: hubris, a propensity for needless risk, liberalisation impulses that lead to a slippery slope, picking the wrong successor and counterproductive violence.
Mugabe, 93, is no exception; he groomed the wrong person to succeed him and relied too much on his military. When he tried to change his pick, the generals decided they’d had enough.
Almost throughout Mugabe’s 37-year rule, Emmerson Mnangagwa – like Mugabe, a veteran of the war for Zimbabwe’s independence from the UK – was the dictator’s closest ally and aide.
The country’s first security minister, he ran the special units that suppressed tribal resistance to the rule of Mugabe’s party. These units forced villagers to dance on the graves of their relatives, chanting pro-Mugabe slogans, Heidi Holland wrote in Dinner with Mugabe.
In the late 1990s, when Zimbabwe intervened on the government’s side in the Second Congo War, Mnangagwa built strong ties with the military. His political ambitions grew, and in 2005, Mugabe slapped him down, taking away his senior post in the ruling Zanu-PF party.
But he ended up rising to the vice presidency in 2014. It was clear that Mugabe saw him as a potential successor.
As Mnangagwa demonstrated his staying power, built ties and accumulated favours in various parts of the Zimbabwean establishment, Mugabe was growing more dependent on the military.
Charles Mangongera, a Zimbabwean researcher, wrote in a 2014 paper: “As the president’s authoritarian grip on the state has been gradually slipping in the face of growing opposition, the military has grown more and more involved in politics.”
The Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) are not the kind of military that steps in to guarantee normality and adherence to governance traditions.
The ZDF are inextricably linked with Zanu-PF, but not necessarily with Mugabe. As the ageing dictator became more and more frail, Constantine Chiwenga, the ZDF commander, became known as a Mnangagwa ally.
So, when Mugabe fired Mnangagwa earlier this month, accusing him of disloyalty, and when it became clear the dictator would like his wife, Grace, to serve as vice president and take over from him, Chiwenga made his move. The military takeover in Harare took place the following day, on Tuesday.
There’s little to celebrate about it. Grace, with her violent temper and love of luxury, probably wouldn’t be a great president. Mnangagwa, 75, is hardly an improvement. Observers have described him as a cruel, spiteful man.
Zimbabwe, which has gone through traumatising violence and economic upheaval under Mugabe, doesn’t have much to expect from the military intervention. The new dictator will seek to make sure he’s more coup-proof than his predecessor, and that may mean more violent suppression.
For autocrats elsewhere, however, what happened in Zimbabwe can be a useful lesson. A long-time associate with succession ambitions cannot wait for ever for a dictator to die. If he’s allowed to build up power, and especially befriend the most powerful generals, a dictator’s days in power are numbered.
Constantly shaking up the security apparatus and the political leadership allowed Stalin and Mao to die in office. An early decision to establish a dynasty worked well for Kim Il-sung.
Mugabe won’t be joining the ranks of these undefeated dictators because he’s been negligent. It’s only human, especially after almost four decades in power. – Bloomberg