Small parties win under our voting system

SMALLER parties are one of the main beneficiaries of our electoral system. If we had a constituency-based electoral system with first-past-the-post as the norm, it would have eventually evolved into a two-party system, as is the case in most constituency-based democracies.

Yet the founders of our constitutional democracy deliberately decided on a system whereby all, even those on the fringes of our society, could be given a voice through the party of their choice.

Our first democratic Parliament saw seven parties go into the National Assembly. By 2014 this number had nearly doubled to 13 parties.

Often commentators and pollsters would ignore smaller parties in the run-up to elections, but they have proven to be influential.

Take for example the African Independent Congress (AIC). Completely ignored by all commentators and media before the 2014 elections, many dismissed the party’s surprise entry into Parliament, saying it was a result of “voter confusion”.

Those who voted for the AIC thought they were voting for the ANC, suggested the commentators. However, in reality, even if we agree with this analysis, the AIC was able to use this “default” vote to catapult itself into determining the leadership of a metro two years later.

In 2014, the AIC garnered about 100 000 votes on the national ballot; it received votes only in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape on the provincial ballot, which amounted to just over 23000 votes. In other words, it was setting itself up as a regional party, on a regional issue, i.e. Matatiele, and yet received over 70 000 more votes in other provinces on the national ballot.

By 2016 it had increased its votes to nearly 150 000 on the proportional ballot nationally. It had grown by 50000 votes in two years, i.e. more or less a seat in the Assembly, and was determining, together with two other smaller parties, who governed one of South Africa’s eight metropolitan cities, Ekurhuleni. This in a province it did not even contest in 2014.

Parties should not usually grow in local government elections because voter turn-out is about 10% less than in national and provincial elections.

Often smaller parties are portrayed by our media and commentators as fringe groups with peripheral issues that organise around a rabble-rouser leader. Yet some of these smaller parties hold a broader base and certainly have the potential to change the political landscape. Take for example the African Transformation Movement. Many media commentators have dismissed the party simply because it could be a Zuma invention and has the maverick Mzwanele Manyi as a member.

The party is led by leaders of the SA Messianic Council of Churches, comprising the largest Christian churches in South Africa. Independent African Christian churches account for about 15 million South Africans.

In a political landscape where centrist parties are in crisis, it is only smaller parties that will benefit. Analysts, commentators and political activists ignore them at their own peril. In 2019, smaller parties will win, for unlike their bigger counterparts, they have nothing to lose.

Seale has more than a decade’s experience in electoral research. He lectured South African politics and democratic theory at Rhodes University and the University of the Western Cape