DOWN TO TH

Lobbying and horse-trading in the countdown to the ANC’S most divided elective conference yet is intense. While Cyril Ramaphosa has most party branches behind him, other machinations could have Nkosazana Dlamini-zuma emerging on top. It all depends on how

The ANC’S make-or-break election race to succeed Jacob Zuma as president is billed as an epic battle between good and bad, but in politics there is perhaps no such thing. Deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, with his nose in front a week before the ruling party’s crucial congress kicks off on December 16, may end up as Hillary Clinton to his chief rival Nkosazana Dlamini-zuma’s Donald Trump. Ramaphosa has received the majority of the party’s consolidated branch nominations, but it is far from over. The former union leader turned business mogul, favoured by Nelson Mandela to succeed him, looks set to take it — but only if we assume there will be no mass bribing of delegates or other skulduggery to make them deviate from their branch mandates when they cast their ballots at Nasrec, Johannesburg.

Also rippling beneath the surface is a sense that, as with the US poll, neither candidate inspires the confidence SA needs to restore growth and good governance after a decade of corruption, mismanagement and stateenterprise capture under Zuma — the most serious threat to the country’s young democracy, and nemesis of a once-proud liberation movement.

Ramaphosa put up an impressive showing in the branch nominations, far exceeding even his own camp’s expectations.

As things stand, he has 1,860 of the branch nominations to Dlaminizuma’s 1,358, and the majority in five of the nine provincial executive committees (PECS), to Dlamini-zuma’s lead in four.

The ANC Youth League, Women’s League and Veterans League as well as its national executive committee (NEC) and the PECS will also nominate their preferred candidates. The leagues bring 60 delegates each to the conference, the NEC 86 and the PECS 27 from each of the nine provinces (see page 25)..

Dlamini-zuma is likely to get the bulk of the vote from the women’s and youth leagues, while Ramaphosa is in the lead in the veterans league. The NEC seems likely to be split nearly evenly between the two.

In reality what will count is how they and the branch delegates vote on the day. Will they stick to their mandated choices or change their minds in the final hour to shift the balance in Dlamini-zuma’s favour?

An element that also could upset predictions is the “unity” ticket thrown into the ring by Mpumalanga ANC chairman, premier and would-be kingmaker David “DD” Mabuza. This gambit emerged at the Mpumalanga provincial general council last Friday. While Dlamini-zuma received 123 nominations to Ramaphosa’s 117, both were vastly outnumbered by delegates opting for the so-called “unity” ticket, endorsed by 223 branches.

“The cat is back,” the slick and unnerving Mabuza announced when he

What it means: As in the US election, there is the danger that neither candidate will be able to inspire confidence among the general population