LAYING DOWN THE PARTY LINE

In an uncanny moment of déjà vu, the ANC again finds itself with two centres of power: the president of the republic is no longer head of the party. And the pressure on the ANC’S newly elected leadership to recall SA president Jacob Zuma is mounting.

In 2008 it took the ANC’S national executive committee (NEC) nine months — from the point at which Zuma was elected ANC president — to force President Thabo Mbeki, to resign. This was done less than a year before the 2009 national elections.

Round two may be even more complex: Zuma does not look ready to go down without a fight, even though he no longer holds any official leadership position in the party. He is now nothing more than an ANC member who must toe the party line.

But Zuma is also a high-risk deployee with a target on his back. Late last year the constitutional court directed the national assembly to formulate rules to regulate the impeachment of a president in terms of section 89 of the constitution, after it was found that parliament did not do its job in holding Zuma to account over the Nkandla scandal.

However, the ANC does not have the luxury of time in this round of its leadership battle. The longer Zuma stays in office, the greater the possibility the party will receive a bloodied nose at the ballot box in 2019. Both of Zuma’s terms as SA president have been mired in scandal and controversy. He has united opposition parties in their bid to oust him. They have drawn support from religious leaders, civil society and ordinary South Africans as the accusations of Zuma’s role in allowing the state to be “captured” have mounted.

This week, attention turned to East London, where the ANC’S new NEC was to convene on Wednesday in its first meeting since its members were elected in December. The committee’s traditional January 8 statement, marking the party’s founding on that day in 1912, will follow on Saturday.

At the time of going to print, the agenda was sketchy. We do know that the NEC is required to elect its national working committee and deal with the January 8 statement, which will set the direction for the rest of 2018, the “Year of Nelson Mandela”.

The rest is an open question. ANC spokesman Zizi Kodwa has told the Finan- cial Mail that the meeting will “mainly” prepare for the January 8 anniversary celebration.

Asked if members are allowed to raise issues from the floor in a special NEC meeting, Kodwa says “there is nothing like a no-go area for NEC members . . . People can raise anything”.

NEC member Fikile Mbalula has been more direct, reportedly saying that Zuma’s recall remains on the agenda and that it will be deliberated on by the NEC.

New ANC chairman Gwede Mantashe dropped hints about the matter in Ekurhuleni last week, saying: “If we can’t do the right thing, we must offer to resign.”

By the time you read this, the ANC’S highest decision making body might just have decided to recall Zuma. Or not. Anything is possible.

An NEC lekgotla is set to take place next weekend, ahead of the president’s state of the nation address in parliament on February 8. The official invitation to that event says Zuma himself will deliver the address. However, if some of party president Cyril Ramaphosa’s backers get their way, it will be him who does it.

Meanwhile, it is worth paying attention to the January 8 statement, in which Ramaphosa will convey the NEC’S decisions. It will indicate where the balance of forces lies within the committee. If the statement includes the announcement of a special prosecution process for state capture that is independent of a commission of inquiry, then 2018 is set to be a bad year for Zuma.

In what some may see as a preemptive strike, Zuma on Tuesday announced that he will institute a judicial commission of inquiry into state capture.

Deputy chief justice Ray Zondo will head up that commission, which will have to probe claims that Zuma’s son Duduzane and the president’s friends, the Gupta family, compromised the machinery of the state.

It’s a spectacular turnaround, considering Zuma said in December that he would appeal the judgment in which he was ordered to institute such an inquiry.

If Ramaphosa does get the ball rolling on prosecutions, 2018 will become more complicated for opposition parties. They have banked on the fact that a weak ANC, stripped of its moral authority, will lose support ahead of the 2019 elections, perhaps dropping below 50%. ANC president

will deliver the party’s traditional January 8 statement this weekend. What he says will provide an indication of where the balance of forces lieswithin the NEC

What it means: All eyes will be on East London this week as the new ANC NEC meets for the first time — and Zuma’s fate hangs in the balance