BIG CLEAN-UP NEEDED
Cyril Ramaphosa will have his hands full, dismissing a raft of Zumaappointed, Gupta-linked members of government and installing trusted comrades that may include Pravin Gordhan and Derek Hanekom
When the dust settles after President Jacob Zuma’s protracted removal, the real work will begin. Zuma is set to resign after a potential recall by the ANCS national executive committee, but should he fail to do so, he would be removed through a motion of no confidence in parliament.
A cabinet is automatically dissolved when a sitting president leaves, but the people discussed below will probably not be included in a new cabinet.
Speculation is rife that finance minister Malusi Gigaba may not survive the chop and may not even deliver the upcoming budget. Changes may also be ushered in at the SA Revenue Service, with questions still lingering over commissioner Tom Moyane’s handling of the allegations against his second-incharge, Jonas Makwakwa.
While Gigaba has been toeing the national treasury line, his credibility is in tatters and, with deputy chief justice Raymond Zondo’s inquiry into state capture on the horizon, he is unlikely to remain in the key post.
Gigaba has been described as the “architect” of state capture during his tenure at public enterprises, allegations that will be tested during the Zondo inquiry.
A key aspect of Zondo’s terms of reference is the Gupta influence in appointing cabinet ministers and appointing boards to state-owned enterprises.
SA may, then, have its fifth finance minister (though Pravin Gordhan would feature twice in that list) in just over two years. Gigaba’s removal may return Gordhan to the post until the 2019 election.
Gigaba and current public enterprises minister Lynne Brown ensured that stateowned companies were peppered with Gupta family associates and connections.
Business Day’s reports last year on a tranche of leaked e-mails, detailing the controversial family’s interactions with key government ministers and officials, focused the spotlight on Gigaba’s role — whether witting or unwitting — in the state capture project.
A Public Affairs Research Institute statecapture report, released before the e-mail leak, also painted Gigaba as a central figure.
Mining minister Mosebenzi Zwane is also likely to be replaced, given his role in the policy uncertainty in the mining industry and potential criminal charges hanging over his head over the Vrede dairy farm project.
Public service & administration minister Faith Muthambi, who allegedly leaked confidential cabinet information to the Guptas, is likely to face the chop. She is also leading the public sector wage talks with labour and the major labour federations, Cosatu and Fedusa, are hostile to Zuma’s administration and ministers associated with it.
Another minister perceived as a Gupta appointee is co-operative governance’s
David Des van Rooyen.
Ramaphosa would have to unravel Zuma’s influence in the security cluster. Intelligence minister Bongani Bongo will probably be removed after allegations that he attempted to bribe the evidence leader for parliament’s inquiry into Eskom, Ntuthuzelo Vanara.
National Prosecuting Authority boss Shaun Abrahams, whose appointment has been deemed unlawful by the high court and set aside, will also have to be replaced (though he and Zuma are appealing against the judgment). Social development minister Bathabile Dlamini, responsible for the nearcrisis in delivering social grants, could also face the chop, along with energy minister David Mahlobo.
A number of Ramaphosa loyalists could return to ministerial posts, including Derek Hanekom and Mcebisi Jonas. An olive branch may be extended to the SA Communist Party through ministerial posts — the party’s top leadership was largely left out of the ANC’S national executive committee at its December elective conference at Nasrec in Johannesburg.
Ramaphosa will also have to replace premiers — Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza and Free State premier Ace Magashule were elected to the ANC’S top six in December. Mabuza could step into the deputy president post in government and Magashule’s position at Luthuli House is a full-time one.
ANC national executive committee members, such as former treasurer Zweli Mkhize and former spokesman Zizi Kodwa, are also touted to receive cabinet positions.
But what happens next can only follow Zuma’s exit which has been a protracted process for the ANC.
What is clear, though, is that these are the dying days of the Zuma administration. Once he is removed, changes are expected to roll out thick and fast.