SHIFT TO COALITIONS?

The Zuma era triggered a change in the way South Africans vote, leading to a number of Da-led coalitions at local level — but the difficulty of holding coalitions together shouldn’t be underestimated

Next year is set to be the year of the coalition government if SA’S opposition parties have their way. Pushing the ANC’S national support below 50% has been something no party has been able to do since the first democratic election in 1994.

The 2016 local government elections signalled a significant shift in the way South Africans vote, as the mighty ANC lost control of three major metros. Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay fell into the hands of smaller parties that joined forces, led by DA executive mayors, to ensure the ANC lost power.

This set the stage for coalition politics which had until then only really been implemented in the Western Cape, where the DA has been governing since the 2009 general elections.

Former president Jacob Zuma was a gift to the opposition, even during the local government election, with his antics at the helm of the ANC and government affecting support for the party.

This bore fruit for the DA as multiple hung councils were up for grabs after the votes were tallied.

Following the August 2016 polls, an official coalition was formed between the DA, the Congress of the People, the African Christian Democratic Party, the FF+ and the UDM.

The IFP entered a working agreement with the coalition where it had seats in the same municipality, while the EFF said it chose “a better devil” and voted to keep the ANC out of power, though it did not forge a formal agreement with the DA.

However, almost two years into the marriage of convenience, the honeymoon seems to be over.

The difficulty of governing a municipality without a clear majority recently came to the fore when the Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg councils could not pass budgets on the first or even the second attempt.

It is not only in the metros that coalitions have come unstuck.

In Mogale City in Gauteng the council voted out DA mayor Michael Holenstein in a secret ballot even though the coalition, together with the EFF, represented a majority of the votes. The ANC garnered enough support to get its candidate elected.

Metsimaholo municipality in the Free State, which was initially governed by the multiparty coalition, was placed under administration and had to hold fresh elections.

Most recently the Limpopo government placed the municipality of Modimolle/ Mookgophong under administration at the request of the DA in the council after the municipality went bankrupt.

Many issues between the official partners have recently played out in public, such as the DA’S relationship with the UDM in Nelson Mandela Bay where Bantu Holomisa’s party no longer forms a part of the coalition.

Tension between the parties culminated in the removal of the UDM’S Mongameli Bobani as deputy mayor.

The saga led to the EFF, which acts as kingmaker in Tshwane and Johannesburg, among other centres, boycotting some council meetings in these metros to express its anger at the way the DA worked with its coalition partners in Nelson Mandela Bay.

Holomisa’s dismay at the situation in Nelson Mandela Bay is well documented. The UDM remains a member of the national opposition coalition and holds seats in other councils, but has made it clear that it will not support the DA in Nelson Mandela Bay.

Holomisa said it was too early to say who his party would work with after next year’s election. He indicated, however, that as long as the DA acted like “bullies” they would not get any co-operation from the UDM.