AI gets serious
The debate about whether an algorithm will replace your job is becoming more and more pertinent
Most conversations about artificial intelligence (AI) seem focused on the potential job losses resulting from this new form of automation. About 800-million people could lose their jobs by 2030, according to the figures from a study by the Mckinsey Global Institute last December, which also predicted that AI will affect 800 job types and occupations in 46 countries. That’s 20% of the global workforce, a not insignificant number of people.
“We estimate that as many as 375million workers globally (14% of the global workforce) will likely need to transition to new occupational categories and learn new skills, in the event of rapid automation adoption,” the authors conclude.
We have to assume that this is not the part of Mckinsey that helped the nefarious agendas of Eskom or the Saudi government, and take the research to heart.
The kind of work that could be easily automated, they say, includes that done by machine operators, food workers, mortgage brokers, accountants and other administration staff. As is always the case with AI jobs, these are the ones that can be easily automated — a white-collar version of the effect of the production line and robotic arms on blue-collar jobs. And, as is always the case, the jobs requiring human interaction are still relatively safe for now — including doctors, lawyers, teachers, care workers and bartenders (though the Saxonwold Shebeen’s famously generous barkeeps have already been affected by other factors).
Meanwhile, as is always the case in AI conversations, Mckinsey predicts that technology will fuel the creation of more jobs — as we have seen how the internet and social media have created a raft of new jobs, fancy titles and people who work from home.
“This job growth [jobs gained] could more than offset the jobs lost to automation,” Mckinsey writes.
Going to Shanghai for an Ai-themed conference earlier this month seemed an ideal opportunity to see first hand how this new technology might be affecting the country seen to be in the lead.
“China was really the first country to tackle AI on a national level in terms of focused, governmental thinking; they were the first to say ‘we need to win this thing’ and they certainly are ahead of the US and Europeans by a few years,” highly regarded author Yuval Noah Harari told The New York Times.
The Israeli historian, whose first book, Sapiens, was a seminal stab at understanding our history, has just published a new book called 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, in which AI and its threats feature prominently.
“AI allows you to analyse more data more efficiently and far more quickly, so it should be able to help make better decisions. But it depends on the [type of] decision,” he said, adding that “AI is only as powerful as the metrics behind it”.
Meanwhile, Huawei — the largest maker of telecoms equipment and the global number two smartphone manufacturer — is predicting that AI will become a new “general-purpose technology” (such as electricity or information technology). It is predicting that by 2025, there will be 40-billion personal smart devices and 90% of these device users will have a smart digital assistant.
As Huawei’s rotating chair Eric Xu told the Huawei Connect conference, AI services will be “as prevalent as the air we breathe”.
It’s a whitecollar version of the effect of robotic arms and the production line on bluecollar jobs