THE POSER FOR 2019

It has been a quiet December at the Union Buildings. No finance ministers have been fired, no more credit downgrades have assailed the country. You’d almost think things are going in the right direction.

The good news is that if all the dice fall on the right numbers, then SA is actually in a prime spot for a revival. The only thing is, the consensus is that global growth will slow slightly next year.

Then, it’s about where those dice land. Should Eskom’s situation deteriorate, or SA fail to keep a tight rein on the land issue, or Moody’s junk SA’S sovereign rating, the economy will take a hit. But if that doesn’t happen, and President Cyril Ramaphosa gets a solid election victory for the ANC and can implement sweeping changes to his cabinet and accelerate policy reform, investors will believe they can bank on SA again.

Either way, expect economic activity in SA to remain muted for at least the next six months, based purely on domestic factors. Then we’ll have to see what happens in an external environment.

If the US Fed increases interest rates by more than expected, the rand could take a hit, SA interest rates could rise and the economy could tip into a recession.

But, fortunately, the probability of an imminent US or SA recession is low. Which means SA could have a lot more to smile about in 2019. General number: (011) 280-3710/3183

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