THE PROVINCE WHERE THE MPC STANDS A CHANCE

The fractious opposition alliance can forget about a national victory, but anything is possible in Gauteng

There has been considerable noise about the multiparty charter (MPC) and whether the dozen or so opposition parties in it can cause a political earthquake.

The short answer is no. At least not nationally, and not yet. The MPC is the brainchild of DA leader John Steenhuisen, who announced the idea of a “moonshot pact” at the party’s congress a year ago. He hoped to bring together a bloc of opposition parties to prevent an ANC-EFF “doomsday pact”, which he says would be the worst possible outcome for the country.

In recent weeks, it has appeared that the MPC is on the ropes an internal ActionSA communication was leaked indicating that the party would lodge a grievance with its MPC partners over comments by Steenhuisen that it interpreted as showing a willingness to form a coalition with the ANC should the MPC fail to attain an outright majority.

The MPC agreement includes a clause preventing any member from working with the ANC or EFF in the run-up to the polls. It states that should the bloc fail to cross the 50% plus one threshold (the most likely outcome), the partners would come together to chart a way forward. There are informal discussions about whether this opens the way for a government of national unity — but that rests on the ANC’s support declining dramatically to, say, 39%. This is unlikely.

It is understood that a lengthy discussion was held between MPC partners over the DA’s alleged duplicity — Steenhuisen, it is understood, told the meeting he had been misquoted.

The affair appears to be much ado about nothing, but it reveals an interesting dynamic between the DA and ActionSA.

Both are fishing in the same voter pool and ActionSA, a breakaway from the DA, is increasingly taking on the role of opposition to the opposition. There is nothing surprising about this since politics is after all based on competition, but it does complicate matters in the MPC.

Steenhuisen also recently came under fire for attacking “mercenary parties” such as ActionSA, newcomers Rise Mzansi and GOOD for targeting the Western Cape in their election campaigns; he says they are opening the way for the ANC by splitting the vote.

It’s all very messy.

Still, it is trite but true that politics is about numbers.

It is unlikely that the MPC will gain an absolute majority nationally this would require the equivalent of each member at least doubling its vote share from 2019.

But there is one province where it stands a chance of taking the reins Gauteng.

The province is a fascinating battleground in the upcoming election. The ANC has a new, energetic premier in Panyaza Lesufi, who is pushing hard to reverse the party’s decline. The ANC obtained just 50% of the vote in 2019 and bottomed out at 36% in the 2021 local election. It governs Joburg and Ekurhuleni in coalition with the EFF in the province, but Julius Malema’s red berets are running circles around it in those metros, which is likely to boost EFF support in the province come May 29.

It is clear that Lesufi, who is also the ANC chair in the province, is positioning the party in Gauteng to try to govern the province in coalition with the EFF.

If the MPC was formed to offer voters an alternative to an ANC-EFF coalition, then Gauteng is the perfect province to showcase its potential.

In the 2021 local elections the MPC partners together obtained about 45% in Gauteng more than the ANC and in 2019 about 34%. ActionSA posted an impressive performance in the province in its maiden election in 2021, winning almost 10% of the vote.

It is here that the MPC has the best chance of forming a government on condition that it is willing to include other parties such as Rise Mzansi.

Instead of a broad national approach, the MPC should home in on the provinces where a significant impact is within the realms of possibility. This could form the basis for further co-operation, particularly in the 2026 local government elections.

MPC partners should not be thinking about scenarios for when they fail to obtain an absolute majority in parliament; they should focus on contests they can win.

The biggest strength of the opposition in South Africa is its ability to hedge its bets in the face of defeat. This is also its biggest weakness, because it fails to plan for victory.

If the MPC was formed to offer voters an alternative to an ANC-EFF coalition, then Gauteng is the perfect province to showcase its potential