CAN SA ELECTION DELIVER CHANGE?

South Africa’s political landscape may be maturing, but a proliferation of parties alone is not enough to revitalise the country

The democratic stage is primed for a momentous year as pivotal elections worldwide promise to reshape the political landscape. From established democracies grappling with rising populism and economic anxieties to fledgling democracies facing the test of legitimacy, in at least 64 countries voters will head to the polls this year.

South Africa stands as a microcosm of these global trends. As the nation gears up for the general elections on May 29, the political arena presents compelling shifts that could profoundly reshape the nation’s governance framework against a rising tide of global electoral uncertainty. Foremost among these shifts is the precarious position of the governing ANC, which is facing the real prospect of falling below the crucial 50% vote threshold for the first time since 1994.

The challenges confronting the ANC are multifaceted and reflect widespread discontent among the electorate. Issues such as deteriorating service delivery, logistical and energy bottlenecks and perceived gaps in fighting corruption have chipped away at the party’s once unassailable support base. Consequently, the elections carry the weighty potential of ushering in a multiparty government

a development that could be pivotal not just for South Africa but for the entire region.

While the proliferation of political parties and the prospect of democratic pluralism signal a maturing democracy, past experiences with coalition governments at a local level have been less than stellar.

Since 2016, many crucial urban centres have grappled with ineffective coalition governance, sparking doubts about the efficacy of such arrangements on a larger scale.

The opposition is nevertheless maturing. A proliferation of more than 350 parties — some led by former influencers from established parties — underscores a trend of political fragmentation.

Many of the newcomers aim to tap into a disenfranchised voter base, capitalising on voter discontent with the established political system. Yet their viability hinges on their ability to surmount significant infrastructural and financial hurdles, raising questions about their readiness for election day.

Additionally, voter turnout remains a pressing issue. Even though 27.8-million voters are registered for the elections, many are unlikely to turn out on the day. In 2019, 9-million voters did not cast their ballot despite being registered. Research from the Institute for Security Studies notes that young voters, especially, are discouraged from casting their ballot by unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure and inadequate education services.

This election could mark a further departure from old habits of blind party loyalty, evidenced by split voting in which strategic considerations override emotional ties. The ANC’s better performance in national ballots than provincial ones suggests strategic voting, which could reshape the distribution of political power across regions.

Looking ahead, the battleground for political supremacy is likely to centre on urban strongholds, with the ANC poised to keep its hold on rural regions. However, key provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal may face fierce competition, possibly leading to provincial coalition governments a scenario fraught with complexities but indicative of a maturing democracy.

The success of political parties ultimately hinges on bridging historical racial and socioeconomic divides and appealing to the so-called born frees who lack strong ties to any party and represent a demographic ripe for political influence.

Meaningful change

Political uncertainties are not the only hurdle facing the country. South Africa’s economy isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, with creaking infrastructure, lukewarm global commodity prices and persistent fiscal strains putting a damper on growth.

The good news? There’s a chance the economy might pick up a bit, going from a sluggish 0.7% growth rate in 2023 to above 1% in 2024. For this to happen, we need to see more investment in energy infrastructure and some breathing room for consumers in the form of a faster rise in wages than in prices and a break on debt burdens for middle- and upper-income earners as interest rates ease later this year.

Central banks, globally, are carefully weighing inflation risks against the need for looser interest rates. While interest rate cuts are possible in South Africa, concerns about inflation risks from a weaker exchange rate, administered prices and geopolitically driven higher global food and oil prices temper expectations of imminent and aggressive easing. The first interest rate cut in South Africa is expected in the latter half of 2024, but given the skewed upside risks to inflation, the overall interest rate-cutting cycle is likely to be more cautious and gradual than initially expected.

South Africa stands at a critical juncture politically and economically, with the upcoming elections poised to determine the trajectory of governance and economic recovery. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, yet opportunities for meaningful change and rejuvenation abound for a nation grappling with complex legacies and aspirations for a brighter future.

Buckle up, South Africa, things are about to get interesting.