Watching where the power goes
The indecisiveness of the governing party on matters affecting the health of the nation has put non-mainstream parties in the political limelight.
It’s the responsibility of the governing party to find a resolution to intra-party nonideological differences because ongoing hostilities have tarnished its brand. Externally sponsored moves have disfigured its character and content.
Organisational values should unite members with competing interests around a common objective. In the absence of the former, anarchy finds expression and leaves space for the proliferation of a mafia-like bureaucracy.
The core competence of this "mafia" network is the accumulation of wealth through underhand means. “Democratically’’ elected leaders through skewed processes become indebted to this super-structure, which pulls the strings behind the scenes. This affects us all, irrespective of our affiliations.
The alienation of intellectuals has contributed to organisational infantilism. Making things worse is that a network of psychopaths linked to key areas of influence has ruptured moral authority. This is the antecedent of organisational decay. To reverse it may take decades, depending on the balance of forces and the type of leadership at the helm. Reviving the ANC could be a stupendous assignment.
Post-colonial governing parties lose power and influence as a result of deviating from their strategic objectives. As they realise power is slipping through fingers, underhand activities are applied to retain it – an indication that power is moving in another direction.
This shift becomes visible at a local level, where the power dynamics have the potential to influence those at a national level. The manner in which national leadership succession processes are being managed may see the mushrooming of tactical alliances. The troubles besetting South Africa have the potential to bring forces outside the mainstream closer to one another.
Factions have captured the governing party in its entirety and are fighting for absolute control over its soul. When the soul of an entity is captured, it ceases to exist. A different animal, using the name of the entity, emerges.
The dislodging of the governing party in the following economic engines: Joburg (the largest economic hub), Cape Town (the second-largest economic hub), Tshwane (another major economic hub and the executive capital), and Nelson Mandela Bay (the largest economic hub in the Eastern Cape Province) should be understood against this backdrop. The support of the governing party has also been reduced in the following mega-areas, among others: eThekwini Metro, Buffalo City Metro and Mangaung Metro. Here, opposition support has grown and these trends will influence 2019 electoral patterns.
In Makana, opposition parties have made serious inroads and the governing party should be concerned. Also, in the Sarah Baartman region, the strategic Kouga Municipality was lost to the DA. These are hard political defeats that cannot be downplayed.
The issue at local level is about quality service delivery. Harry Gwala once said, people at the end of the day are not going to eat votes.
It was quite interesting for Julius Malema to be invited to speak at the South African Property Owners Association conference in Cape Town, Wednesday. One would have expected the Association to invite one of the ANC presidential hopefuls. This means perceptions are beginning to change about Malema as he matures.
Key strategic sectors are beginning to look beyond the governing party. One caller to SAfm on Wednesday said party presidential hopefuls may ascend to the coveted ANC coveted position, but that's no guarantee they’ll become President of the RSA. Be that as it may, it’ll be naïve to write the governing party’s obituary. It still has a role to play in the South African situation, as a governing party or a not.
Politicians should be able to read the dynamics of electoral power as South African politics assume a new shape and direction. Places known as ANC traditional support bases are susceptible to invasion by other parties.
The main threat to the ANC's survival is the EFF, because it is narrowing the ANC's support. Predominantly black parties are competing among themselves for electoral support in these areas. The DA has also made some inroads.
South African voting patterns are largely informed by historical factors and it will take time to expunge these. The DA has a guaranteed predominantly white electoral support base. The ANC, due to its self-inflicted anomalies, has further alienated this large, conservative electoral base. African purist tendencies antagonised other social groupings.
• Christian Mxoliswa Mbekela is a strategic work consultant specialising in HR, EE and risk management. A former SAYCO NEC member, he was part of the team that re-established the ANC Youth League. He is currently doing a PhD in the Sociology Department at Rhodes University. www.cmmmindpower.co.za