Sanders has chance to beat Trump
Polls show that the largest block of American voters prefer the trailing Democratic candidate to Clinton
Recent polls have demonstrated that Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders holds a much higher potential to defeat Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, in an election than Hillary Clinton, although the latter is the Democratic Party’s frontrunner.
The Reuters news agency and RealClearPolitics, a nonpartisan United States polling data aggregator, are among the organisations that have released ratings indicating that Sanders would have the upper hand in the battle for the White House over Clinton. Clinton has so far won 1 716 delegates and Sanders has 1 433. Counting the superdelegates, Clinton has 2 240 and Sanders has 1 473. But superdelegates can still switch allegiance until the July 25 Democratic convention is held.
Yet RealClearPolitics showed on Tuesday that Sanders had a 13% advantage over Trump, whereas Clinton had five more points than Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday signalled a tight coin-toss race between Clinton and Trump, without reporting on Sanders.
Dustin Woodard, an analytics expert, said a significant reason for Sanders’s advantage was a result of disproportional support from independent voters, a group he said other polls failed to factor in. “Independents are the largest voting population in the US. Gallup reports that independents are 42% of the voting population, while Democrats are only 29% and Republicans are only 26%.”
Sanders and Trump have been the favourites of independent voters, he noted, adding how their voice changed the outcome of polls.
“When I look at other head-to-head polling sources, the 10 most recent polls show Clinton only beats Trump in eight of them and her margin of win averages 4.6%, but most, if not all, of the polls do not have their independent numbers correct.
“This would suggest Clinton versus Trump is a really tight battle, possibly in Trump’s favour. But on Bernie Sanders’s side, he beats Trump in every poll by an average margin of 14.1%. If independents were adjusted, his margin might be larger.”
Gary Nordlinger, a political researcher at George Washington University, said a recent poll by his university showed that Trump leads Clinton among independents by 5%.
The poll, released earlier this month, also noted that Clinton had a high “unfavorable” rating standing at 46% because many perceive her to be part of the “political elite”.
On the other hand, “Sanders entered the race without much national recognition, hence he had low unfavourable ratings.” — Al Jazeera