Independents rock the Bay’s boat
Largely they are disaffected members of the major parties who hope to exercise influence if they win
Nationally, there are 101 more independent candidates contesting local government elections than in 2011 but it’s unclear who stands to benefit from this increase. Of the 855 independents, 166 are in the Eastern Cape, with 22 of them in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro.
The ANC scored a slight majority in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro in the national election in 2014 but it now faces independents who defected from the ruling party.
These councillors are hoping to win control of their wards and wrestle power away from the ANC to force a coalition in the council.
But this seems unlikely, according to analysts.
“Most of the independents tend to be defectors from other parties, be it from the ANC and sometimes the DA [Democratic Alliance], if they didn’t make it on to the list. They can take a couple of wards, but I think that the proportional representation [PR] system works in a way that it disadvantages them in council,” said Ralph Mathekga, a political analyst at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
The Electoral Institute for Sustainability of Democracy in Africa agreed that the complex PR system only works in favour of independent candidates who win, rewarding them with some leverage in city councils.
“It’s almost impossible to say who it’s going to benefit. So, with regards to all the speculation about how independents can influence things, if you’re not picking up a council seat, you are not influential. Only once they win the ward, can they offer the seat to a political party or strike deals,” said Ebrahim Fakir, the manager of the electoral institute.
Among t h e c o u n c i l l o r s wh o defected from the ANC are Noxolo Mafumadi and Vusi Ngqungwana, who are contesting Motherwell’s ward 55 and 56 respectively. Together they decided to take on their former political home after five years of “empty promises”.
“The people are sick and tired of the ANC’s empty promises and only seeing the councillors every five years. They want someone who lives here and will see our challenges. I think I’ll take the vote away from the ANC, not the DA,” Ngqungwana said.
Mufamadi believes her community has grown disenchanted with the DA after one of its councillors joined the ANC.
“There’s no way the ANC can beat me with the new candidate [who crossed over from the DA]. I think the community is backing me. But let’s see what happens,” she said this week.
The advantage of having the independents’ support in a council is not being ignored by smaller parties. Earlier this month, the Mail & Guardian reported on how the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is bankrolling the campaigns of candidates such as Mufamadi, in the hope that she will side with the predominantly coloured party if she makes it to council.
The United Front (UF), backed by the metalworkers union, Numsa, has confirmed that, besides fielding 43 of its candidates in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, it is also working with several independents.
“There are independents that are linked to the United Front. For strategic and tactical considerations, they had to stand alone. Some are still in the ANC, others are forced to hide their affiliation because, if they identify with the UF, the community would not want to vote for them.
But, if they win, they will stand with us in terms of policy directions,” said the UF’s regional secretary, Mkuseli Mtsila.
The smaller parties are banking on an electoral victory for the independents, and both the UF and PA said they believe this is a strong possibility.
Odwa Fumba, New Brighton’s independent candidate, who is a prominent South African Communist Party and ANC branch member, believes the threat to the governing party is so serious that his political opponents have resorted to copying his campaign strategy.
“The battle is between me and the current ANC councillor. He’s under pressure because he doesn’t care about other political parties. He’s bad-mouthing me. He follows me like a puppy with general meetings and rallies. We are going to win. I can see the mood,” he said.
Ironically, and as if to explain the proliferation of independents in today’s election, Fumba’s campaign slogan is: “Together we can move ward 16 forward.”