Dutch say no to far-right populism
Most Netherlands voters have rejected the ‘Dutch Trump’, but his rhetoric is hitting home for some
Wednesday’s highprofile election in the Netherlands, which boasts the fifth-largest economy in the eurozone, saw Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) again emerging as the largest party.
The ballot threw a spotlight on the Netherlands as the first big test of whether conservative anti-Establishment forces would continue to make political headway globally.
Although the far-right Freedom Party, headed by the so-called “Dutch Trump”, Geert Wilders, led in polls for much of the campaign, some recent surveys showed the party slipping back as far as fifth place.
Rutte, who asserts he has stopped the “dominoes of populism” postTrump and post-Brexit, will now seek to establish his third coalition government after the country saw its highest election turnout in more than three decades.
A turning point in the campaign may have come with the diplomatic standoff between Turkey and the Netherlands over Rutte’s refusal to allow Turkish ministers to campaign in the country for a referendum on granting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers.
More than 250000 Turkish nationals live in the Netherlands, and the result could pivot on their votes. In a campaign dominated by immigration and integration, the Dutch government was perceived by many domestic voters to have handled the situation well in the face of strong language from Erdogan, who called the Netherlands a “state of terror”.
Even though the Freedom Party failed in its attempt to emerge as the largest single group in the lower house, the party looks likely to have gained seats overall. For a nation often seen as one of the most liberal in the West, some of these traditions show increasing signs of fraying.
In a country with a long tradition of religious tolerance, Wilders has asserted that Islam is potentially more dangerous than Nazism and has called mosques “Nazi temples”. His rhetoric may be overblown but support for his cause could only grow, with multiple consequences.
First, his outrageous utterances may continue to push the political centre of gravity rightwards. Wilders, who was convicted last year of incitement to discrimination, has clearly struck a chord with a substantial slice of the electorate. His platform is similar to other populist, far-right leaders across Europe and his pledge to make “the Netherlands ours again” echoes Trump’s “make America great again” slogan.
A second consequence is that the combination of Wilders’s growing influence and the fragmentation of Dutch politics could make governing the country increasingly difficult. Wilders could continue to be a significant player in Dutch politics, although it is unlikely that he will ever become prime minister. This is because the country’s elections generally lead to coalition governments and almost all other groups have ruled out working with him because of his extreme views.
Third, in a country that has voted “no” in two separate European Union referendums, Wilders will now seek to polarise the electorate on EU membership. Despite levels of support in the Netherlands for leaving the EU being lower than in the United Kingdom, some polls indicate that about half the electorate would like a “Nexit” referendum.
Outside the Netherlands, Wednesday’s poll was very closely watched internationally, not least in France, given that National Front presidential candidate Marine le Pen is looking for inspiration to pull off an upset victory in that country’s presidential race in April and May.
Le Pen will particularly note the way that the Freedom Party lost momentum in the last leg. Rutte claimed: “The Netherlands, after Brexit and Trump, said: ‘That’s enough of the wrong sort of populism.’” Le Pen will now seek to avoid the same fate in France.
Taken overall, the impact of Wilders on Dutch politics could be significant for years to come, despite the election result. His prominent far-right challenge will have enduring consequences for the nation’s polity, and could yet set the stage for his ally Le Pen to go one further in France and secure an upset victory.