Beleaguered Kabila finds a friend in Zuma
It has been a tough few weeks for Joseph Kabila. Two related problems have left the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo looking unusually vulnerable on the diplomatic front — and could, perhaps, endanger his bid to remain in office long after the expiry of his second term, which officially ended on December 19.
But, as Sunday’s state visit to Pretoria demonstrated, Kabila still has one friend in the region: President Jacob Zuma.
Kabila’s first problem is the ongoing violence in the Kasais, three provinces in the west of the country where his army is struggling to contain an armed insurrection. Estimates suggest that more than 3000 civilians have been killed in the fighting, with tens of thousands more fleeing across the border to find refuge in neighbouring Angola. The United Nations has found evidence of 42 mass graves and wants to investigate the possibility that government forces were implicated in war crimes or crimes against humanity.
Last week, the UN’s Human Rights Council — over the strenuous objections of the Congolese mission — gave the go-ahead for an independent international investigation of these alleged crimes. For Kabila, the consequences could be severe. If his government is found to be culpable, then at best he could be looking at new sanctions on top officials and possible International Criminal Court charges brought against the perpetrators of the crimes. At worst, Kabila, as commander-in-chief and therefore ultimately responsible for his army’s actions, could be indicted.
The violence in the Kasais has also prompted Kabila’s second headache, which is more severe: a deterioration in relations with Angola. Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos has been playing a key behind-thescenes role in mediating the political crisis in the DRC, and has come to Kabila’s rescue on several occasions.
His ulterior motive is obvious: any instability in the DRC could spill over its borders into Angola. But, as the Kasais crisis demonstrates, the DRC is already unstable — and that instability is already breaching Angola’s borders. Backing Kabila is no longer working for Luanda.
As Reuters reported last week: “A change of tone in Angola’s relationship with longtime ally Congo has left Congolese President Joseph Kabila more isolated than ever as he clings to power in his vast central African country … Luanda is frustrated by Kabila’s handling of several crises, including his failure to step aside when his mandate ended last December and a conflict in which refugees have poured across his country’s long border into Angola.”
All this bad news has left Kabila searching for friends. On Sunday in Pretoria, he found one. Zuma rolled out the red carpet — literally and metaphorically — for his fellow head of state. Relations between the pair have always been amicable and go beyond the diplomatic.
“The relationship between Zuma and Kabila is the best Joseph has in the region. In fact, it’s more of a personal relationship than a stateto-state relationship,” said Claude Kabemba, director of Southern Africa Resource Watch.
Not only do the two presidents like each other, there is also a business connection between their families, through the commercial activities of Zuma’s nephew, Khulubuse Zuma. There have long been question marks over the propriety of these activities.
During the state visit, Zuma and Minister of International Relations and Co-operation Maite NkoanaMashabane were silent on the alleged atrocities in the Kasais, and put no pressure on Kabila on the subject of elections. Nkoana-Mashabane went so far as to liken Kabila’s situation to that of the ANC, and pledged full support. “The true solutions would be made in the DRC, found by the people of the DRC. All we can do is to support you as you go through this current political transition,” she said.
In the choreographed world of diplomatic protocol, the lavish welcome extended by Zuma amounts to a ringing endorsement of Kabila.
“The silence from South Africa on the situation in Congo can be construed as an acceptance of Kabila’s behaviour,” said Kabemba. “It is a diplomatic victory for Kabila, but it’s a failure of foreign policy for South Africa in terms of showing leadership.”
Kabila returns to Kinshasa with plenty of work to do if he wants to carry on ruling the DRC. A public vote of confidence from South Africa, which maintains 1 300 peacekeepers in the country as part of the UN mission, makes his position just that little bit easier.