Fear of losing grants influences voter choice

The Centre for Social Development in Africa report highlights five headline findings:

1. ANC support is declining

Support for the ANC continues to decline, sitting at 53% of total respondents (11% of the total said they would not vote or did not know who they would vote for), but the biggest opposition parties are unlikely to be able to achieve majorities, opening the door to coalition governance.

2. Seismic shifts have begun

The data shows that “trust in the party” emerged as the main reason for voting for a particular political party (37%). Second was that the party brought freedom and democracy (35%), and the likelihood that a party will bring a better life was a close third (32%).

3. Fear factor

Although 86% of respondents said they did not think that receipt of a social grant affected their voting preferences, this was not the case for social grant beneficiaries. A quarter of social grant beneficiaries indicated that fears that they could lose their social grants if they voted for another party were influential in their voting choices. See more below.

4. Predictive factors

The statistical analysis found perceptions of governance, socioeconomic rights protection and corruption to be significant predictive factors. Plus, factors such as age, race, education and gender were all shown to be statistically significant in the analysis.

5. Women lead

Women respondents are less likely to vote for the ANC in the next election compared with their male counterparts.