One peace deal can’t fix CAR
The Central African Republic’s latest conflict flared in 2013 and eight previous deals have failed
In late 2017, from his air-conditioned office inside a fortified compound in central Bangui, the man tasked with keeping the peace in the Central African Republic (CAR) gave the Mail & Guardian an unusually frank interview.
“The CAR has been in this situation, I want to say, for the largest part of its existence,” said Parfait Onangaanyanga, the United Nations special representative to the CAR and the head of Minusca, the 15000-strong international peacekeeping force.
“In 57 years of independence, [there have been] 47 years of cyclical violence. Mutinies, coups, civil unrest. This country has never enjoyed peace and stability,” he said.
Will it ever? Onanga-anyanga said he “hoped” that UN peacekeepers won’t be needed in 20 years’ time.
From this perspective, the news from Khartoum this week is welcome: in a major breakthrough, 14 armed groups initialled a peace deal with the government that will, in theory, bring an end to a bitter civil war that is now in its sixth year. The deal was signed in Bangui on Wednesday But don’t expect things to change overnight. There have been eight previous attempts to resolve this conflict since it erupted in 2013. All have been unsuccessful, so it is to the credit of the African Union, acting as chief mediator, that negotiations have come this far.
The exact details of the deal have not been released. What we do know has been gleaned from various sources, including comments from rebel leaders.
“Not many details are available yet, apart from four points that have been shared or leaked,” said Eva Michaels, a conflict analyst specialising in Central Africa. She said these are: the granting of amnesty for rebel group leaders; their participation in a new inclusive government, with a new prime minister to be chosen from among their ranks; the planned establishment of a new commission for justice, reconciliation and reparations; and the planned creation of mixed brigades (incorporating rebel soldiers into state security forces).
President Faustin-archange Touadéra, who signed on behalf of the government, was quoted by Associated Press as saying: “Now is the time for us to turn a new page, the page of Central African Republic, which has reconciled with itself, in order to preserve its dignity. We do not have the right to disappoint.”
And yet the potential for disappointment remains high, as the signatories themselves admit. “The difficult time starts now, and that is implementing the Khartoum Agreement ... This agreement is crucial for peace,” said Herbert Gontran Djono Ahaba, speaking on behalf of the rebels, again according to AP.
Greatly complicating efforts at implementing any agreement is the unusual nature of the CAR’S civil war. The very fact that there are 14 armed groups at the negotiating table — and not all are represented — is an indication of just how fractured the CAR has become. Some of the armed groups are large, nominally controlling territory the size of a small country, whereas others have just a few hundred fighters and may not control any territory at all.
Nobody — not the government, which barely has any authority outside of Bangui, and not the UN peacekeepers, who are stretched thinly across a vast territory — has the ability to implement the terms of the deal by force, so its success will rely on the good faith of the signatories.
For long-suffering Central Africans, even a partially implemented peace deal could open the doors to much-needed humanitarian aid. “The armed groups need to provide humanitarian organisations with safe access to people in need. At the same time, the international community needs to show that, when this is in place, we are ready to scale up the support, and to stay and deliver,” said Jan Egeland, the secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, speaking before this round of peace talks commenced in January. But the international community is reluctant to provide the necessary funds: in 2018, less than half of the $516-million humanitarian aid appeal was forthcoming.
The CAR has been in turmoil almost as long as it has existed. It would be naive to think that this peace deal, on its own, will fix a broken country. The agreement is a good start — but it’s too early to celebrate.