Climate crisis to hit food

The world’s economic malaise stands to worsen significantly in the wake of the climate crisis. New research by relief and development agency Christian Aid has found that a significant portion of the fruit, vegetables, pulses and meat products used by households in the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany come from countries vulnerable to climate change — indicating a considerable threat to food security in those countries.

Commenting on the findings, Simon Lewis, a professor of global change science at University College London, said: “For 10 000 years farmers experienced a broadly stable climate. Indeed, this stability is one key factor in the rise of complex civilisations. Now the game is radically different, because, on average, next year’s climate is not like the past. This spells, at a minimum, food supply disruption and elevated food prices.”

For much of this year, food prices spiralled in the wake of war-related supply chain disruptions, as well as harsh weather conditions.

Although food inflation has started to fall at home, South African economists have warned of the effects of the upcoming El Niño, the weather phenomenon that will push temperatures — and, possibly, prices — higher.

Last week, in a research note on South Africa’s inflation trajectory, Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said that the interest rate hike cycle in South Africa has probably ended and next year will see some interest rate cuts.

But the risk to inflation both this year and next year is likely to be on the upside.