Poll: EFF may unseat opposition DA
The Ipsos survey also suggests the ANC could dip below 50% of the vote, requiring it to form a coalition to govern
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could unseat the Democratic Alliance (DA) as the official opposition in the 2024 general elections, while the ANC might need to rely on other political parties to govern the country, according to the latest Ipsos poll.
The survey’s results were released on Tuesday and align with several others that have pointed to a significant decline in the support of the governing party, which has enjoyed majority rule since 1994.
According to the survey, ANC support is likely to be at 38.5% and the results for other parties are: EFF (18.6%), DA (17.3%), Inkatha Freedom Party (3.6%), Actionsa (3.4%), African Christian Democratic Party (0.9%), Freedom Front Plus (0.8%) and other parties 6.8%.
“In the data depicted, the EFF performs marginally better than the DA, potentially positioning itself as the ‘official opposition’. However, these results should not be taken at face value as the figures include 10.1% (one in every 10) of the registered electorate who have not aligned themselves with a particular political party, indicated as ‘will not vote’, ‘refuse to answer’, or ‘don’t know’,” Ipsos said.
A big takeaway from the survey is that a coalition government is “conceivable” at a national level.
“This suggests that the possibility of a national-level coalition is conceivable, though not guaranteed. In the event of such an election outcome, the ANC would only require a party with about 4% to 6% national support as a coalition partner to establish a national government,” according to the survey. “A coalition
involving just two parties could streamline negotiations and potentially enhance the coalition’s effectiveness.
“However, it’s essential to stress that this is purely speculative, and numerous further studies will be conducted in the lead-up to the 2024 election,” Ipsos cautioned.
Ipsos conducted the survey from 23 October to 1 December 2023 with 3 600 people in faceto-face interviews. They were asked which party they would vote for if the elections were held tomorrow.
The survey did not speak to the performance of the newly formed umkhonto wesizwe party, endorsed by former president Jacob Zuma, because the fieldwork was done before the party was established on 16 December.
The survey shows that Herman Mashaba’s Actionsa will be one of the newer parties likely to have representation in parliament and the Multi-party Charter for South Africa will get about 33% of the votes combined.
Ipsos’s sub-saharan Africa director, Mari Harris, emphasised that these results do not constitute election predictions, which could only be made in the final stages before the election.
“Various factors, including campaign dynamics, political and economic changes, as well as the state of essential services like electricity and water provision, can influence the election outcome in the final months. It is prudent to monitor all these developments closely before drawing any conclusions about the final election outcome,” she said.
“The pivotal factor in this election hinges on voter turnout on the day of the election. Several analyses indicate that anticipating a high voter turnout may not be realistic, largely attributed to widespread despondency regarding the country’s situation and low levels of trust in politicians and political parties.”
On Tuesday, the Electoral Commission of South Africa said it had added 1.2 million people to the voters’ roll following its second and final voter registration weekend. The voters’ roll now stands at 27.4 million.