ANC buoyed by a ‘rural firewall’
The party appears precarious, but the possibility of it retaining a majority cannot be dismissed
As the election nears, there’s uncertainty about the future composition of the government for the first time since 1994, and although the ANC risks losing its majority, it is likely to retain its status as the largest party in the country after the 29 May polls.
These insights are in the latest Macro Review report by the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA).
The report also analyses election outcomes in terms of recent voter polls in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Kwazulu-natal, where the governing party faces stiff political competition.
“Data from municipal by-elections shows that [ANC] support remains remarkably buoyant in more rural provinces, such as Mpumalanga, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape — a situation described by Wayne Sussman, an election analyst, as its ‘rural firewall’,” CRA analyst Marius Roodt said in the report.
ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa remains the most popular politician, which would provide the party with some respite at the polls, he added.
A CRA poll in 2023 showed that 41.9% of South Africans held a favourable view of Ramaphosa, against 37.1% who had an unfavourable view of him. His predecessor, Jacob Zuma, emerged as the secondmost popular politician with 33.5% of respondents holding a favourable view of him.
Roodt said Zuma’s new umkhonto wesizwe (MK) party has generated much of the uncertainty regarding the election, adding that recent polls indicate it could secure about 10% of the vote, “much of which would be drawn from the ANC”.
“Another concern, in addition to uncertainty around the result of the elections, is rising voter apathy. Fewer South Africans are turning out to vote in elections,” Roodt said.
In 1999, the first election in which there was a national voters’ roll, the proportion of registered voters who turned out to cast a ballot was 89.3%. Since then, the trend has been declining, down to 66.1% in 2019.
“Based on this trend it is possible that fewer than 60% of registered voters will exercise their right to vote on 29 May,” Roodt said.
He said the trend is even more stark when looking at all eligible voters, which includes every South African citizen in the country who is older than 18.
“In 2019 there were 41.6 million eligible voters in South Africa. Of those, 26.8 million were registered to vote, but only 17.7 million turned up at a ballot booth in 2019. For every eligible voter who voted there were nearly 1.5 eligible voters who decided not to vote,” Roodt said.
In addition, 1994 was the only election in which the ANC was supported by a majority (54%) of eligible voters. Since then, the party’s share has declined steadily, reaching a low of 27% in 2019. This means that only about a quarter of South Africans
of voting age supported the ruling party in 2019, the report noted.
A CRA poll also reflected a growing distrust in the political process. Of those who said they would not vote, nearly 30% said they did not trust any of the parties to deliver, 14% said that they were too disillusioned, and 15% felt politics was too corrupt. Only 2% said they would not vote because they did not trust the electoral process.
Voter apathy and protests
According to the report, as trust in politicians and their parties has declined, so the proportion of eligible voters not participating in elections has increased, and at the same time the number of violent protests has risen across the country.
“Since 2007 the number of reported violent incidents per year has more than quadrupled, while the proportion of people who vote has been declining. South Africans may increasingly be seeing violent protest as a more legitimate form of political expression than voting, a trend which has significant implications for stability and the legitimacy of South Africa’s democracy,” Roodt said.
In addition, polls by the CRA, the Social Research Foundation (SRF), the Brenthurst Foundation and Ipsos suggest that the ANC is expected to get the largest share of national votes, although none placed it above 50%. Polling data indicates that the Democratic Alliance (DA) stands to remain at 20% to 27% of the vote, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at about 10%.
The SRF polls focusing on the provincial vote and conducted in April 2024 asked people which party they would vote for. In Gauteng the poll was modelled on a 62% voter turnout and the ANC emerged as the largest party, but polled at 32%, with the DA following closely behind with 27%, and the EFF at 17%.
“The data implies that the ANC is losing credibility with Gauteng voters with multiple service delivery issues plaguing the province, most recently the collapse of water infrastructure,” the CRA report noted.
A similar SRF poll in Kwazulunatal and the Western Cape, modelled on a 66% voter turnout scenario, asked the same question.
The poll suggested a political shake-up with the MK party emerging as the biggest party in the province, with 30% of respondents saying they would vote for it.
The ANC’S share dropped to 24%, suggesting the MK party could be “extremely successful” in attracting ANC voters in the province.
“It is worth noting that, combined, the ANC, MK and EFF comprise 61%, according to the SRF’S numbers,” the CRA report said.
Political analyst Gareth van Onselen noted in the report that there is little difference in the policy and ideological inclinations of the three parties.
“There has been no fundamental shift in the outlook of the majority of Kwazulu-natal voters, even if those parties have fractured in terms of intensity and chosen personality,” Van Onselen said.
In the Western Cape, the poll found that 56% of voters would choose the DA, 16% the ANC, 6% would choose the African Christian Democratic Party, 6% the Patriotic Alliance (PA), 3% the Freedom Front Plus and 2% Actionsa.
“The PA has recently formed an alliance with other parties, mostly community-based or popular in rural parts of the province, including Advieskantoor, The Karoo Gemeenskap Party, The Karoo Democratic Force, The Oudtshoorn Gemeenskaps Initiatief and Witzenberg Aksie. With this alliance, the PA wants to push the DA below 50%,” the CRA noted.
But the DA majority will be hard to break in the province, the CRA report noted.