Bloviator blowing in the wind
IRVIN Jim, boss-man of Numsa, is a firebrand activist in the mould of Julius Malema but with a little more brains. But now he is peeing in the wind with his bodacious dreams of contesting the 2019 general elections with his Socialist Workers Party.
The political party space in South Africa is saturated. Even at local government level, we continuously see the emergence of insignificant minority parties, apostates who do little to alter or add gravity to the political landscape.
Numsa has always been critical of the tripartite alliance between the ANC, Cosatu and the SACP.
Since 1985 Cosatu has failed to influence policy direction of the ANC and its trajectory has been consistent in a neo-liberal direction, first through Gear in 1996 and now with the NDP. Zwelinzima Vavi’s expulsion escalated the fissures and cracks in the alliance. The SACP transformed into a reactionary cabal that dwelled on Stalinist jargon resulting in Blade Nzimande being axed by Jacob Zuma.
In 2013 the country’s largest trade union, Numsa, broke away from the Cosatu federation. They were expected to contest the 2014 general elections or alternately form a partnership with EFF but that did not materialise. They are now seeking a political alternative to the left. Will this be another fiasco like Agang or a case similar to Cope where lieutenants like Sam Shilowa and Phillip Dexter became alienated. Peter Lekota continues to “terrorise” the ruling party on a leader’s ticket. Fired ANC politician Makhosi Khoza has just paid R500 to register her new party, ADeC, while R149 million has been distributed for 2018/9 to the 15 registered political parties on a national ticket, through the Represented Political Parties Fund, which is managed by the IEC.
In my opinion any worker-related movement could only achieve success under a unified Cosatu trade union federation. The election countdown will very soon reach fever pitch and a new season will dawn. A season for political assassinations and where serial malingerers will masquerade as wolves in sheep’s clothing. There is a permutation of expectations on the possible election outcome but word around the fire is that it is a three-horse race between the ANC, DA and EFF.
Possible outcomes could be as follows :
1. EFF becomes the official opposition.
2. EFF makes significant gains.
3. DA narrows gap with ANC with significant gains.
4. DA could win narrowly.
5. ANC could win by outright majority.
6. DA/EFF coalition government.
7. Improved IFP performance against 2014 results.
While options 1 and 5 are unthinkable and option 4 remains a dot on the horizon, options 2, 3 ,6 and 7 look to be a reality. All other parties are just helping to split the votes, which is also very important. While the IFP, once the official opposition and the second largest political party in SA, looks like a relic set to go to pasture like its leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, the EFF could once again emerge as kingmaker in coalition politics.
The current internal squabbling within the DA does not augur well at this time. And the Freedom Front could follow the eventual demise of the National Party as the white man continuously becomes alienated and leaderless.
Regarding Jim and his Socialist Workers Party – has the pace of this move been carefully calibrated or is this the blurting rhetoric of a blathering bloviator? KEVIN GOVENDER Shallcross