Greek tragedy looms on eve of referendum
Volatile public mood means poll could go either way
SUPPORTERS of the bailout ter ms for Greece have taken a wafer-thin opinion poll lead over the “No” vote backed by the leftist government, a day before a referendum that may determine the country’s future in the eurozone.
The poll by the respected ALCO institute, published in the Ethnos newspaper yesterday, put the “Yes” camp on 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the “No” vote. But the lead was well within the pollster’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error, with 11.8 percent saying they are still undecided.
Given a volatile public mood and a string of recent election results that ran counter to opinion poll predictions, the result is still completely open.
With banks shuttered all week, cash withdrawals rationed and commerce seizing up, the vote could decide whether Greece gets another last-ditch financial rescue in exchange for more harsh austerity measures or plunges deeper into economic crisis.
It could also deter mine whether Greece becomes the first country to crash out of the 19-nation European single currency area membership.
The survey found 74 percent of Greeks want to stay in the eurozone, 15 percent want to return to a national currency, with 11 percent undecided.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has urged Greeks to reject the “humiliating” terms offered last week by international creditors in a deal that is no longer on the table, and ac- cused lenders of “blackmail” by withholding credit.
As discontent mounted over long queues for pensions and at cash machines, Tsipras promised voters that banks would reopen as soon as the government clinched a fresh loan from its eurozone partners.
Credit ratings agency Fitch said the banks were already effectively bust and would go to the wall within days unless the European Central Bank (ECB) increases emergency liquidity assistance to help them cope with a wave of withdrawals.
There has been little time for campaigning but Tsipras was due to address a mass rally of “No” supporters in Athens’ central Syntagma Square outside parliament yesterday evening. The “Yes” campaigners plan a rally at the old Olympic Stadium.
The “No” campaign has directed much of its venom at Germany, the eurozone’s dominant power and Greece’s biggest creditor.
One of its posters shows a picture of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble with the slogan: “For five years he’s been sucking your blood. Tell him no now.”
The Council
of
State, Greece’s highest administrative court, was to decide on the constitutionality of the referendum at a hearing yesterday. The Council of Europe, a panEuropean democracy and human rights watchdog, has said the vote does not meet its minimum standards.
Two Greek citizens are seeking the suspension of the vote as unconstitutional and illegal, arguing it was called at too short notice, that the constitution bars questions relating to fiscal policy, and the question is unclear and too complex.
Many Greeks may be unable to cast ballots, either because they are abroad and have to return to the country to vote, or because they don’t have the money to return to their home constituencies because of the cash restrictions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday that Greece faces a huge financial hole regardless of the outcome of the referendum and would need € 50 billion (R680bn) and a massive debt writedown.
The assessment, in a preliminary draft of the IMF’s latest debt sustainability report, underlined the scale of the problems facing Athens, whatever the referendum result and whatever gover nment is in office to deal with it.
Tsipras may not survive if voters ignore his call to vote ‘No’ and it could be up to a new government to negotiate a new deal. But even if European leaders are willing to sit down with Athens, it may be weeks before a new bailout is sorted out, EC vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said.