THE FAULT LINES OF THE ANTI-FRACKING MOVEMENT
Hundreds of thousands of potential jobs from shale gas development is no small matter.
For many people in South Africa’s rural areas, even the hope of work is better than constant and grinding poverty.
In late 2016, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) published an in-depth study of shale gas development on behalf of the Department of Environmental Affairs.
The 1 400-page study concluded that the size of the reserve could be 20tcf at the most and that there were very significant risks in regards to water quality, greenhouse gas emissions and agriculture. Fracking would use up to 65 million cubic metres of water and may produce as much as 302Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The CSIR also pointed out that the employment potential was considerably less than what Shell’s study stated. There would only be 420 to 2 575 jobs with 15% to 35% of those jobs located in the Karoo. In order to mitigate the risks – for example, spillage of fracking fluid – the report suggested that government regulates the shale gas industry.
To reduce the risks, government would have to manage oil and gas companies considerably better than it watches over Eskom and Sasol: Witbank and Sasolburg aren’t exactly tourist destinations known for their clean air and pure water. In an era of rampant corruption and the subsequent hollowing-out of the state, I reckon that regulation and enforcement will be a disaster.
We now have a scientific assessment that says the risks are high and the benefits are relatively low, especially in terms of jobs.
On March 30, Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane gave shale gas exploration the green light. Of course, the fact that the ANC’s Thebe Investment Corporation owns 28% of Shell South Africa had nothing to do with Minister Zwane’s decision.
When environmental activists make unfounded claims like fracking caused the quake, they too are departing from science, which is a gift to Shell.
People and organisations campaigning against fracking lose credibility when they make hasty and incorrect scientific claims. The power to persuade the general public decreases with each falsehood. One of those unfortunate own goals.
Another unfortunate own goal was when, in 2012, the high-profile Treasure Karoo Action Group (TKAG) joined up with the conservative and politically orientated AfriForum to oppose fracking. The formal alliance between TKAG and AfriForum split the wider anti-fracking community and needlessly replicated the stark class and, by extension, racial divisions in the Karoo.
For a very long time, white farmers have treated the Karoo as a feudal enterprise with the nonwhite population filling the role of exploited serfs. The last 20 years have not seen the kind of substantial transformation of financial and power dynamics necessary to redress the long-term social, economic and psychological consequences of the past. The TKAG and AfriForum alliance is counter-productive to eradicating the stereotype that fracking is a white person’s issue and has prevented a broad movement from developing.
Because of TKAG and AfriForum’s media presence and financial resources, one particular class in the Karoo tends to dominate the public debate, leading to community activists feeling, as a campaigner once told me, invisible.
The irony is that if there ever was an issue in the Karoo that could bring far mers and far mworkers together, it is fracking. But it hasn’t: environmentalism’s social tragedy prefiguring Shell’s ecological tragedy.
Developing the Karoo doesn’t require fracking. Renewable energy, increased global branding of Karoo lamb and the promotion of tourism are all steps in the right direction. The Karoo is, after all, a beautiful place with lots of sun. The lamb tastes great.
So why take the risk that fracking will poison scarce water supplies, negatively impact the Karoo’s economy and increase carbon emissions? And if we really, really absolutely need gas, we could just import natural gas from Mozambique…
The case against shale gas in South Africa has never been stronger and it has nothing to do with the recent earthquake.
And, despite Minister Zwane’s statement, there is still a long way to go before drilling commences. Expect le gal challenges, public opposition and local resistance.
Yet the anti-fracking campaign is under threat. Not from Shell or factions within the ANC, but from environmentalists who either misuse science or ignore class and race issues.
Tristen Taylor is a post-doctoral fellow in philosophy at Stellenbosch University. He was the project co-ordinator at Earthlife Africa in Joburg from 2007 to 2016.