Facing meltdown as Arctic ice vanishes

At point of no return but damage can be limited, experts say

IT MAY be over 14 000km away from South Africa, home to polar bears, glaciers and icy deserts, but scientists are clear: what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.

That’s because the coldest place on earth, which has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the world for the past half century, influences the weather systems across the planet.

A newly-released scientific assessment by the Arctic Council’s monitoring and assessment programme – undertaken by a team of more than 90 scientists – warns that the Arctic is shifting – rapidly and in unanticipated ways – into a new, altered state.

And this, say the scientists, has important implications for all humanity. “If current trends are allowed to continue, they’ll have increasingly profound impacts on human health and safety, industries and economies, and ecosystems around the world.”

Their Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost report warns that the Arctic Ocean could be largely free of sea ice in summer as early as the late 2030s.

Their bleak data comes just after the US National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that Arctic sea ice in March was the lowest it has been for the same month since satellites began measuring sea ice extent nearly 40 years ago.

The council’s report says the warming of the Arctic is marked by record-setting temperatures in recent years “leading to continued or accelerating losses in sea ice and snow, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, freshening and warming of the Arctic”, as well as ecological shifts.

The loss of sea “has the potential to accelerate global warming trends and to change climate patterns.

“This evidence suggests that future changes in the Arctic will affect weather elsewhere in the world even more than they do today.”

Noelle Garcin, the climate leader manager at the African Climate Reality Project, says while the profound changes in the Arctic may seem remote, the effects will be felt locally.

“These are all the results of global temperature rising and with the Arctic ice melting it accelerates the effects of global climate change, which are felt locally.

“The drought we have here and the ice melting are all symptoms of the same phenomenon, which is global warming. The weather events become more extreme and more regular.

“People say, ‘but we’ve always had droughts,’ and, yes, we have, but they will be longer and more severe and at the same time. We’ll have more extreme flooding and changing rainfall patterns in South Africa.

“For many people, it may feel hard to relate to the Arctic but we must remember the global weather system is interconnected.”

The Arctic, says Professor Nick King, a global change analyst and strategist, “controls” or at least substantially affects much of our global weather.

“There are many unknowns as to how things will play out, especially as we don’t really understand the system feed- backs and tipping points in the various ecosystems, and as elsewhere.

“It’s also very much about how humans respond that creates additional effects to natural responses. For starters, the Arctic ‘controls’ or at least substantially affects much of our global weather on a seasonal basis, from the overall temperatures to the Jetstream, the ocean temperatures and the ocean conveyor currents.

“A warmer Arctic seems to be pushing the Jetstream further south, resulting in unseasonal cold snaps and snow storms further south than before, with huge impacts on agriculture, transport, energy systems and everything else in our society.

“If the ocean conveyors are affected, as seems likely, then this could stop the warm Gulf stream, which is what makes most of Europe inhabitable.”

The report warns that Arctic ecosystems will face significant stresses and disruptions.

“Changes in sea ice are expected to affect populations of polar bears, ice-dependent species of seals and, in some areas, walrus, which rely on the sea ice for survival and reproduction.

“There will also be losses of ice-associated algae.”

King says changing ocean temperatures are already driving significant changes in fish stocks and fish stock ranges worldwide, and a war mer Arctic will exacerbate these impacts, “including potential for conflict as previously ag reed maritime f i shing areas collapse and expand in unpredictable ways”.

“It also means that invasive species rapidly gain new footholds, as is happening already in the Arctic.

The council’s researchers say that while the point of no return for the Arctic has been reached, implementing the 2015 Paris agreement will limit the extent to which the Arctic climate changes over the remaining decades of this century. “In contrast, higher emissions will result in continued losses,” it emphasises.