Expected Goals under/over-performance

Expected Goals is a measure of how many goals a player (or team) should score based on the location of their shots and the type of pass leading up to the chance (cross, through-ball etc.)

Looking at the xG of each player in total, we see how many goals they should have by now. Bimenyimana has the highest total, but again, this is skewed a bit by the number of penalties he has scored, each of which counts for 0,79 Expected Goals as about 79% of penalties are converted on average. In reality, he has 6,64 total Expected Goals, but only 3,48 non-penalty xG, from which he has scored twice. We can therefore see that he is missing some glaring chances and should be on around seven or eight goals by now.

Billiat is the biggest underperformer by a mile, with zero goals from 3,93 Expected Goals. The veteran Zimbabwean should have scored about four goals this season but has somehow contrived to fail to score even once, something that doesn’t bode well for his chances of a new contract at the Naturena-based club. Dolly is the biggest overperformer in terms of xG, which is no surprise – he has scored two very low percentage efforts from freekicks. Basically, his freekick against Swallows is only scored 2% of the time by the average player, whist his TS Galaxy freekick is scored 6% of the time.

Sekgota’s low numbers show how rarely he gets into scoring areas in front of goal, something he simply must improve! He has delivered 62 crosses this season, showing how wide he tends to play, but when Solomons or Reeve Frosler have the ball down the right, Sekgota needs to be arriving at the back post or on the penalty spot to attack deliveries. Meanwhile, Du Preez can also be much more ruthless and should be putting up higher xG numbers by running behind defences even more often than he is doing now.