The favourites

Opta Analyst gave a supercomputer the task of picking who was most likely to come out of the tournament as champions. It deemed that Senegal would successfully retain their title, giving them a 12.8% chance of winning. Host nation Ivory Coast are narrowly behind them with a 12.1% chance of winning the silverware on home soil. The Elephants are trailed by 2022 FIFA World Cup semi-finalists Morocco, who have been given an 11.1% chance of winning the lot. Algeria is below them on the list with 9.7%, followed by Egypt with 8.5% and Nigeria apparently has an 8.0% chance of marching to victory.

Senegal

The Lions of Teranga could not have dreamed for a better start to the tournament, thrashing Group C rivals Zambia by three goals to nil. While they boast a host of star players, two of them, in particular, stand out as forces that could inspire their side to glory, and they are on both ends of the pitch. Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy will play a key role in marshalling his defence, organising them, and ensuring that nothing comes past him. Like many that are in the squad, he already has one Afcon trophy in the cabinet and the experience the 31-year-old is now equipped with will be important if he is to add another one to his collection. He kept five clean sheets in seven matches during their last Afcon campaign and if he manages to do the same this year, it could very well give Senegal the upper hand. The other star player, Mane, is a forward who has won almost everything there is to in world football. Having won trophies in Austria, England, and Germany, the two-time African Player of the Year has all the tools to once more lead his team to a continental triumph. During Afcon 2021, Mane was Senegal’s top scorer and netted three times as the side marched to the trophy. He will be hoping that he can replicate it this time around. However, whether the former Liverpool striker can score a pot load of goals or not does not seem to matter, based on their first showing at this year’s edition of the competition. Against Zambia, all three of the Teranga Lions’ goals came from the centre of the park with midfielders Lamine Camara — who netted a double — and Papa Gueye stepping up and scoring the goals. If their entire team is firing on all cylinders, the Senegalese fans will be filled with hope!

Ivory Coast

The Elephants were always going to be a part of the conversation. Not only because of being the hosts, but also because of the strong squad they have at their disposal. Like Senegal, they too made a convincing start to the tournament with a 2-0 win over Guinea-Bissau on the opening day of the tournament. When the eyes of the continent were on them, they managed to not cave while carrying the burden of expectation on their shoulders and will be hoping to keep that level-headedness as AFCON 2023 progresses. The side will be looking to repeat the feats of their predecessors who won the competition twice, in 1992 and 2015. Historically, the Elephants are considered to be a powerhouse i Africa, but that title will be tested. Given that the nation have not gone further than the quarter-finals since 2015, it is a test they will be determined to pass. Having won their first encounter without star striker Sebastien Haller, they have certainly put themselves in a good position to go a long way in the tournament.

Morocco

Given an 11.1% chance of winning AFCON 2023, the Moroccans with the likes of Hakimi, Manchester United’s Sofyan Amrabat, veteran Wydad AC midfielder Yahya Jabrane and co will be feeling confident. The squad will likely still be inspired by their run during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar where they made history by becoming the first-ever African team to reach the semi-finals of a World Cup. It may just prove to be the catalyst that propels them to their first Afcon title since 1976. They were drawn into Group F alongside Tanzania, DR Congo and Zambia. They have both the confidence and the quality to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. Atlas Lions head coach Walid Regragui made his side’s intentions clear ahead of the competition.

“We are realistic in knowing that there is also the level of motivation and ours is very high,” he said per CAF. “I imagine this is the case with the other teams too. We have the humility to say that we respect everyone, that we are not the best team on paper but we absolutely want to bring home this trophy,” he added.

Algeria

The Desert Foxes are another side jammed with quality players, but the one that stands out the brightest is probably Riyad Mahrez who just last year was a part of the Manchester City squad that won the treble for the first time in the club’s history. The winger then moved to Saudi Pro League side Al Ahli in July where he has made quite the impression, scoring nine goals and creating seven in just 20 appearances. The side also boasts the likes of AC Milan midfielder Ismael Bennacer who has become a key player for the Italian giants. His season thus far has been plagued by injuries. However, he made a return to the pitch in December last year and managed to get five games under his belt before leaving to tend to his international duties where he is expected to play an important role in his team’s Afcon campaign.

Much like what seems to be the trend of the so-called ‘big teams’ at the 34th edition of the competition, Algeria’s opener — a Group D match against 117th-ranked Angola — ended 1-1. Like many of those watching the tournament from the outside, Desert Warriors coach Djamel Belmadi said the result was not what he had expected when coming into the fixture. He did, however, say that his side has identified their mistakes and intends to put things right in their next match. “This is not the result we expected. We were expecting to have 3 points. We tried our best and didn’t want to lose the game so we did what we can do to get a point which was necessary,” he said at the post-match conference. “We made some technical mistakes but it’s not professional to start a tournament with the mindset of a loser so we will prepare for the match against Burkina Faso to put things right,” he added.

The not-so-dark horses

It is nearly impossible to speak about the continent’s footballing heavyweights without mentioning

Egypt and Nigeria. Many people would, however, suggest that both teams made an underwhelming start to their respective campaigns. A late penalty by Mohamed Salah saved Egypt’s blushes as they drew 2-2 with Mozambique who are currently 111 on the FIFA Men’s Ranking. Nigeria, meanwhile, boasts an intimidating attack that consists of Osimhen, fellow Serie A star Ademola Lookman, and English Premier League midfielder Alex Iwobi among others. Despite their talent, the Super Eagles also made an unsatisfactory start to the tournament, drawing 1-1 against Equatorial Guinea, although hope is far from lost. Osimhen was the goal scorer in that game, and it is a good sign because it shows that their star striker seems to be firing on all cylinders. If he can continue to do so, the Super Eagles’ fortunes are bound to change for the better. Both teams have another two opportunities to pick up points in the Group stage and progress to the knockout stages. Many players as well as coaches have insisted that this edition of Afcon is set to be extremely competitive and with all the talent on display, outcomes cannot be guaranteed.