Succession: likelihood of split
THE discussion around the succession debate within the ANC is likely to bring another splinter party after the elective conference in December.
My thinking is based on the fact that the current president, Jacob Zuma, said the ANC was ready for a female president.
In my analysis, it’s clear that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is a compromised candidate.
She is currently enjoying the support of the so-called “premier league”, ANC Women’s League, etc. However, having served under Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki presidencies gives her an edge.
I have mixed emotions about her achievements within the African Union.
At the same time, one cannot rule out the possibility of her being a puppet.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s success in business gives him the edge because the country needs an individual who can restore investors’ confidence in the country.
However, others feel there is a cloud surrounding him with regard to the massacre in Marikana.
The surprise element is the announcement by the ANC Youth League on their preferred candidate. Baleka Mbete, Kgalema Motlanthe and Zweli Mkhize’s names have now been brought forward.
I doubt what we heard at the January 8 statement – that the ANC wants unity within the organisation – will be achieved. Instead there is the likelihood of a splinter party if one of the mentioned candidates wins. The other possibility is the ANC will not win the 2019 elections. Lehlohonolo Lehana Roodepoort