Get over yourself SA, downgrade neither peculiar nor a conspiracy against us
Rating agencies have previously acted even against the US and UK
Many argue that the ‘issuer pays’ model make the institutions open to manipulation
As the newly appointed Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba jetted of to the United States to “woo” investors and appease rating agencies, one thing is certain, South Africa continues to find itself in an undesirable situation within the context of global markets.
Despite its racial and economic divide, South Africa has not only been the continent’s jewel but has also managed to show that an African country can be economically stable and have the ingredients to move to developed status.
Not only had it become a beacon of hope on the continent, SA had been one of the few African countries with a solid base that had aided it to consistently remain investment grade until March 2017.
It is now common knowledge that the country’s investment rating leaves little to be desired following two consecutive downgrades. All this at the backdrop of a cabinet reshuffle that sent the rand once more on a free fall.
While there has been much noise among some, dismissing the downgrades as nothing other than a collusion by market forces bent on maintaining an economic status quo, some voices of reason have tried to amplify the real consequence of this unfortunate occurrence.
Needless to say, South Africa joins a list of other BRICS countries to be downgraded. Brazil for instance, is not only a peer within the BRICS setting, but like South Africa, it is at a crossroads following a number of suicidal political decisions manifesting themselves through popular protests and political uncertainty.
While in South Africa the issues have been around “state capture” and “Nkandlagate”, Brazil has been preoccupied with the “Petrobus scandal” which claimed political heads. Brazil was downgraded to junk status in 2015, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost of capital and borrowing, reduction in foreign investment and an increase in unemployment.
The downgrade of Russia’s sovereign debt to “junk” in January 2015 on the other hand, resulted in the dampening of investor confidence as evidenced by the 7.40% stock market drop.
While the ills that befell these countries during these periods cannot all be attributed to the downgrades, the coincidence is, however, too glaring to ignore.
A question still lingers though: are rating downgrades conspiracy or fact?
The 2007/8 global financial crisis brought rating agencies under the spotlight, as most analysts and standard setting organisations such as Basel Committee expressed reservation over their methodologies, while some directly attributed the sub-prime crisis to their inadequacies. One of the key criticism levelled centred on the “issuer pays” model which many argue make the institutions susceptible to manipulation.
The rating agencies have reacted to post crisis criticism by enhancing their assessment methodologies. To this end, the rating agencies have had to make some brave decisions, including downgrading the crown jewels and even the mighty USA has not escaped their wrath.
Countries which have been downgraded by Standard & Poors include Brazil, China, Russia, the US, Argentina, UK, France, Greece and Italy.
Whether the downgrades of these big economies can be viewed as signs of reform, courage or smokescreen, it remains to be seen. What’s clear though is that SA’s downgrade is nothing peculiar, neither is it a conspiracy against government or the governing party.
The sooner we get to grips with this truth, the better.