Warning of ANC bloodbath
Violence ahead of conference
The Institute of Security Studies (ISS) has told the Constitutional Court that ANC political violence is likely to increase leading up to the party’s national conference in December and the 2019 vote, due to growing factionalism.
The ISS has filed papers at the court in support of the United Democratic Movement’s bid to have the vote of no confidence into President Jacob Zuma conducted through a secret ballot.
The institute believes intraparty conflict in the period leading to the 2019 elections will be due to the ruling party facing its most severe electoral contest to date.
It also warned intra-party conflict would be a significant threat to free and fair elections.
“For the first time, there may also be a significant threat to free and fair elections as the Independent Electoral Commission is steadily being drawn into the contestation,” reads a document attached to the affidavit of ISS crime and justice programme head Gareth Newham.
According to the ISS, “ANC violence” intensified when former president Thabo Mbeki was ousted as party leader in December 2007, and during the run-up to Zuma’s election as head of state in May 2009.
“During this period, the report notes the assassination of mayoral candidates, arson attacks and a number of violent clashes between high-level ANC party representatives and other party members,” the document states.
The ISS said “fatal politically violent events” have also been steadily rising since 2011 and seemed to spike around the times of elections.
In his affidavit, Newham warns that “violence, which may include targeted political assassinations and a general environment of threats and intimidation, may undermine parliamentary oversight”.
According to Newham, the ISS has gathered evidence of MPs were not spineless.
“She ought to be concerned that the impact of the threats and intimidation may be a defeat of effective parliamentary oversight over the president,” he explained.
Newham said in the climate of allegations of threats and intimidation, Mbete has discretion to call for a vote by secret ballot in order to protect the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight. the use of political violence, threats and intimidation, especially at local government level, for political control to determine political outcomes.
ANC spokesman Zizi Kodwa said that the governing party has full confidence in its MPs.
“Whichever way the Constitutional Court rules, we are unshaken that ANC MPs will never abandon their own organisation,” he said.
Kodwa said no amount of abusing court processes or fishing expeditions would succeed in dividing the ANC.
Fatal politically violent events have also been steadily rising since 2011
The UPM’s Ayanda Kota told Sowetan that supporting a secret ballot did not mean they were for secrecy.
Khoza did not respond to requests for comment.