President Zuma’s future is definitely on the NEC’s lips

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa gave a clear indication in TV interviews on Sunday that the ANC is about to confront the issue of President Jacob Zuma’s future.

So who will the new “number one” be?

The South African constitution has a two-term limit for holding the presidency. There is speculation that Ramaphosa might not immediately replace Zuma because it could affect his ability to serve two terms if he steps in before the 2019 elections.

This speculation is, however, unfounded as the constitution has a specific clause on such an eventuality.

It states: “No person may hold office as president for more than two terms, but when a person is elected to fill a vacancy in the office of president, the period between that election and the next election of a president is not regarded as a term”.

Ramaphosa is, therefore, free to become president immediately once Zuma is removed.

To implement his priority tasks – such as dealing with state capture and stabilising the economy – Ramaphosa needs to get going straight away. With the ANC also in danger of losing its majority in next year’s election because of the damage done under Zuma, the party will need to provide evidence to the electorate on the campaign trail that change is under way.

It would also be cumbersome for Ramaphosa, as leader of the ANC and deputy president of SA, to give instructions to a placeholder president who would be his junior politically but superior in government.

Many people are comparing Zuma’s removal to what happened with former president Thabo Mbeki in 2008. The circumstances, however, are different now.

Zuma was not a member of parliament (MP) when Mbeki was recalled and therefore would have needed to be sworn in to take the job. He was also an accused person at the time, after the former Scorpions unit served him with an indictment on racke- teering, money laundering, corruption and fraud charges a few days after he was elected ANC president in Polokwane in December 2007.

Then ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe was an MP as well as minister in Mbeki’s government, so the national executive committee (NEC) decided it was best for him to step in as president. Motlanthe abided by the ANC decision that he should be president for nine months and agreed to make way for Zuma in 2009.

The acting NPA head at the time, Mokotedi Mpshe, withdrew the charges against Zuma a month before the 2009 elections, thus allowing him to become president.

The situation is different now. With Ramaphosa already in parliament and the presidency, there can be a smooth handover of power.

The ANC will discuss the issue of “leadership transition” at its NEC meetings on Thursday and Friday, several NEC members have confirmed.

Ramaphosa asked the NEC at its inaugural meeting in East London last week to hold the discussion. An increasing number of NEC members believe the matter needs to be dealt with to begin the ANC’s recovery.

In an eNCA interview on Sunday, Ramaphosa gave strong indications that the “delicate” matter was coming up for discussion, but cautioned that Zuma should not be humiliated.

Although the decision to remove Zuma could be taken at the NEC meeting this week, his departure might not be immediate. Ramaphosa is leading the South African delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, next week so it might be rather bizarre for him to become president and immediately leave the country.

In his speech at the ANC rally in East London on Saturday, Ramaphosa identified the fight against state capture and corruption as priority tasks and flagged a shake-up in the higher echelons of government, particularly in the security and prosecution services.