Problems at Eskom are bigger than Mantashe
Unlikely Ramaphosa will remove minister who is his biggest backer for second term
Gwede Mantashe is unlikely to go anywhere as mineral resources and energy minister, despite calls for him to be fired for his purported role in the energy crisis the country faces.
That is because, quite frankly, there would be no Cyril Ramaphosa second term without the intervention of Mantashe at a crucial time in the run-up to the 55th ANC December conference.
As the president was reportedly getting ready to resign after the release of the section 89 independent parliamentary panel into the Phala Phala scandal, it is said to have been Mantashe who convinced him to cancel the presidential address already publicly announced.
With hindsight, it was an act of boldness that saved the nation from a potential reversal of some positive reforms in law enforcement, no matter how small and slow, had the president’s political opponents managed to regain lost ground.
As the president twists and turns on his office chairs at the Union Buildings and at Mahlambandopfu, several considerations are racing through his mind regarding how best to approach what will be his apex cabinet reshuffle. He is probably grappling with how to do a cabinet reshuffle that helps improve his public image and strengthen his political standing, while also helping to improve state capacity.
The strengthening of state capacity may be secondary to the real politik imperatives of staying in office and improving his image. That is partly because it has become entrenched in the ANC that cabinet positions are secured and lost based on political battles, not individual performance or failure.
How Ramaphosa treats his most loyal backer, Mantashe, and the designated successor, Paul Mashatile, presents a seismic political risk. A serious fallout will determine the length of time he enjoys his renewed support and affect the already vulnerable ANC caucus in parliament.
But these constraints do not bode well for Ramaphosa’s equally important imperative of improving his image domestically and internationally from a slow and indecisive leader who lacks courage to a bold, decisive and courageous leader. Many in the traditional constituency of the ANC do not only judge the president on the extent he shows autonomy from vested local and international interests. Likewise, some sections of business will judge him based on whether his decisions reflect autonomy from those they brand as “ideologues” in the ANC, the very constituency that makes his presidency.
Calls for Ramaphosa to fire Mantashe as part of the proposed solution to the energy crisis appears to many as a direct attack on the strategic national interests as it affects the justness of SAs transition to cleaner energy sources rather than on the person of Mantashe.
Mantashe was among the leftists who ushered Jacob Zuma into the presidency. He was a key figure in defending Zuma during the years of state capture, and the Zondo commission has fingered him in undue benefits from Bosasa, presumably for political protection.
Notwithstanding, Mantashe is probably the last man standing when it comes to ensuring the transition to cleaner renewable energies is just. Granted, he has his role to play in delays to additional capacity but the problems at Eskom are bigger than him.
He has pointed out that Eskom reports way less than its total installed capacity and the utility has not been held accountable for that. He has a point, and the answers may lie somewhere between the claims from new generation proponents and those who feel the coal fleet is not being managed effectively.
The Eskom report to Scopa presented the full scope of issues at play from funding constraints to operational issues and the limitations of an aged fleet. It was quite evident there is poor national leadership and coordination overall at Eskom.
The utility is operating in a crisis but with a business-asusual approach. There is scope for a more meaningful presidential intervention than public relations stunts and shifting Mantashe.