As you were for Gauteng and Western Cape

BASED on a second fully representative Ipsos survey of 2 219 voters commissioned exclusively for the Sunday Times, it would appear both the ANC in Gauteng and the Democratic Alliance in the Western Cape have consolidated their majorities in each province.

In a high turnout scenario (84.6%) and with undecided voters distributed, Ipsos puts the ANC at 60% in Gauteng, followed by the DA at 29.2% and the Economic Freedom Fighters at 5.9%.

In the Western Cape, the survey has the DA at 60%, followed by the ANC at 29.4% and the EFF at 7.2%.

The sample size did not allow for a medium turnout scenario, so the figures are probably slightly exaggerated for both the ANC and the DA in each respective province.

Nevertheless, they suggest the ANC in Gauteng and the DA in the Western Cape are well placed to finish as the party with the largest majority.

The remainder of the campaign will go some way to determine to what extent each party is able to entrench and protect its position.

In 2009, the ANC took 64% of the vote in Gauteng and it seems set to lose some support.

The DA secured 21.8% and will in all likelihood grow significantly in this province.

In the Western Cape, the DA just managed to secure an outright majority in 2009, getting 51.4%. The party is likely to improve that.

The ANC managed 31.5% in

A third province — the Northern Cape — remains heavily contested

the Western Cape in 2009.

The survey suggests it is set to finish at roughly the same level.

There is a third province — the Northern Cape — that remains heavily contested.

The Northern Cape is, however, historically difficult to accurately poll because of the disparate manner in which its population is distributed.

In a high turnout scenario, Ipsos puts the ANC at 60% and the DA at 24.9% in the Northern Cape as of April 4.

Outside these provinces, the ANC appears to enjoy a solid majority in the remaining ones: KwaZulu-Natal (70.3%), Mpumalanga (71.7%), Free State (64.5%), North West (68.5%), Limpopo (79.4%) and the Eastern Cape (71.3%).

Helen Zille’s party fares as follows: KwaZulu-Natal (12.4%), Mpumalanga (11%), Free State (20.9%), North West (11.7%), Limpopo (9.2%) and the Eastern Cape (18.8%).

The EFF registered the following support levels: KwaZulu-Natal (1.5%), Mpumalanga (7.4%), Free State (4%), North West (11.5%), Limpopo (5%) and the Eastern Cape (2.8%).