Support for ANC shows how opposition is failing

THE results of our most recent survey suggest that the ruling ANC is not going to suffer much at the polls next month as a result of the Nkandla scandal. Despite widespread anger over the government spending R246-million on security upgrades at President Jacob Zuma’s private homestead, the Sunday Times-commissioned Ipsos survey reveals that this is not necessarily going to translate into significant losses for the ANC.

According to the poll conducted soon after public protector Thuli Madonsela published her damning report on how Zuma and his family had unduly benefited from the “security upgrades”— which included building a new kraal for Zuma’s cattle and a swimming pool — the ANC is set to get 65.5% of the votes at the polls on May 7.

This is a slight decline from the 66.1% the party registered in a similar survey conducted before Madonsela’s report was released.

Nkandla has become a heated issue in this election, and not just for the opposition and its traditional supporters in largely privileged and wealthy parts of the country. Zuma’s booing during an FNB stadium memorial service for the late former president Nelson Mandela in December last year, as well as various other incidents, confirm that the discontent extends to the ANC’s traditional constituencies.

Yet instead of the ANC suffering a sharp decline in support ahead of the elections, the party looks set to maintain the majority of more than 60% it has held since the first democratic elections in 1994.

Although the Democratic Alliance has embarked on an aggressive campaign to capitalise on public anger over Nkandla, it appears likely to make only modest gains at the polls. Such is the state of the rest of the opposition that no other party is expected to get more than 10% of the votes next month.

Clearly, there are thousands of South Africans who are disillusioned with the ANC but who are not convinced by the messages of the existing opposition parties.

It is within this context that former intelligence minister Ronnie Kasrils’s “vote no” campaign should be understood. It arises from deep frustration with the current political establishment.

It is an indictment against our political system that men and women like Kasrils, who have sacrificed most of their lives struggling for their fellow countrymen to have the right to vote, now call on them to spoil their votes.

The campaign is misdirected, because it will have very little impact on the outcome of the polls. Hopefully, however, the call by Kasrils will not only lead to deep introspection within the ANC about how things have gone wrong, but also force opposition parties to confront the weaknesses that make them so unappealing to the majority of voters.