Packaging row is not smoking out investors
THE steady surge in the share price of British American Tobacco (BAT) over the past five years suggests that local investors don’t share management’s concerns about the possible impact of plain packaging on its cigarette products.
BAT’s share price is around R665, which is a threefold increase on its price five years ago. It may be that whatever concerns local investors have are more than countered by their belief that, given the outlook for the local currency, this global cigarette player will continue to represent a very attractive rand hedge. In London, the share price has also been trending upwards but trading has been more volatile.
The latest assault on the big tobacco companies has been launched in the UK, where the government is looking at a rollout of plain packaging by 2017. The UK move follows the implementation of similar legislation in Australia a few years ago. The Australian government says the move has led to a fall-off in smoking. Earlier this year, Ireland banned branded cigarette packaging.
BAT and Philip Morris International (PMI) have both filed lawsuits against the British government. They argue that the proposed plain packaging deprives them of the use of their property, namely, their extremely valuable trademarks. They are looking for compensation that could run to billions of pounds. One estimate values PMI’s brands at between £9-billion (about R172-billion) and £11-billion.
In Australia, similar legal action by BAT and PMI failed to stop implementation of plain packaging although it may have delayed its introduction.
And whereas the Australian government claims the plain packaging has resulted in a falloff in smoking, the tobacco companies argue otherwise. They say the move has not worked, that it has not accelerated the long-term decline in smoking, that youth smoking is at a seven-year high and that the illegal tobacco market is also at a seven-year high.
A precise measurement of the impact on their Australian business might be necessary so the companies can quantify the extent of value they stand to lose in the UK. It would also allow shareholders to get an idea of the impact on the value of their investments.
Unhappy with Howden
AS Howden’s share price continues its 12-month slump, it seems that every communication between the board and shareholders is met with another bout of share weakness.
This response is attributable to investors’ unhappiness with what is being communicated and the board’s continued failure to convince shareholders of the necessity to suspend the dividend indefinitely, and pay management fees to US-based majority shareholder Colfax.
Given this unhappiness, it was disappointing that more shareholders did not contribute to this week’s annual general meeting (AGM). It was left to Anthony Sedgwick of Abax Investments and Chris Logan of Opportune Investments to use this public forum to try to persuade the board to change its mind.
Are other disgruntled shareholders engaging with management behind closed doors? If so, is this an appropriate strategy? Is it even effective? Or are dissatisfied shareholders just dumping their shares?
Shareholders slumber
TALKING about shareholder activism, there was not much sign of it at the AGMs of Santam and Masonite this week.
Shareholders at Masonite, which, by the board’s own admission, has just been through a “strategically important yet challenging” year, are either extremely content or asleep.
They gave a remarkable 100% backing to every resolution except one: 7.4% of the shareholders voted against the reelection of RE Lewis.
Perhaps by some amazing coincidence Santam has the same shareholders as Masonite. At Santam’s AGM a day earlier, only two resolutions failed to receive less than 99.9% shareholder backing.
WEF inflates security
POWERFUL Swiss-based and opaquely managed multinational organisations run by septuagenarians were much in the news this week.
On Thursday and Friday, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) annual Africa bash was back in Cape Town and managed to incur the annoyance of almost all the delegates as well as hapless workers in the area because of the excessive deployment of security.
The extreme lockdown was puzzling given there were considerably fewer heads of state in attendance than two years ago, when things seemed far more relaxed.
“Security inflation” is a discomfiting global phenomenon, which often seems to be used to keep the “non-elite” in their place as much as to control terrorists.
Watching WEF founder Klaus Schwab, 77, and other dignitaries glide through the several cordons of police unhindered brought back memories of Sepp Blatter, 79, and his dignitaries performing the same trick back in 2010.