OK, so Dlamini-Zuma is also a strong contender

ONE of the dangers of writing a column for a newspaper as big as the Sunday Times is that there’s a fair chance people might read it. I have discovered this in a forceful way in the past few days following my comments here last week about Cyril Ramaphosa being the best candidate, for the economy, to replace President Jacob Zuma in 2019.

The resistance to this proposal from people I know and respect has been quite remarkable for its ferocity. Politely put, they boil down to “you must be joking”.

Ramaphosa, they all argue, has no constituency, no traction in the party, no traction with leaders in our neighbouring countries who still influence ANC politics, and a track record in business which, if put under a microscope, could embarrass him.

And they all say one other thing in common. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, ex-wife of Jacob Zuma — former minister of health, of foreign affairs and of home affairs, and current chairwoman of the African Union — will be the next president.

Thank goodness I said Ramaphosa would need JZ’s support to become president. But if my friends are right and that support goes to DlaminiZuma, then all bets are off. Of course, Zuma’s power to shape his own succession will ebb and flow. The results of next year’s local elections will be telling. He would survive losing Port Elizabeth. Two metro losses would be damaging. Three, a real problem.

I do not know Dlamini-Zuma much. The brief times I have met her she has been warm and kind. I know from colleagues at foreign affairs that they liked her. She protected them politically, encouraged teamwork, took responsibility for her actions and thought at length about the consequences of her actions. If it is true that opposites attract, it might explain her marriage to Jacob.

Obviously Zuma, if he wants Dlamini-Zuma to replace him, will have to move carefully. The KwaZuluNatal party will need to be on board. And some of the provincial barons. And he would need also to deal with some of her flaws.

Would she be her own woman? Under Thabo Mbeki’s presidency she toed his deadly line on Aids and helped him reposition South Africa’s foreign policy away from the high moral ground struck by Nelson Mandela.

She also chopped and changed directors-general whenever she changed jobs, losing the magnificent Mavuso Msimang from home affairs in the process.

Could she bring fresh blood, or experienced blood, back into her cabinet? Jabu Moleketi comes to mind, Telkom chairman Jabu Mabuza too. Why is former Aveng boss Roger Jardine not already running one of the big economic departments?

There are a lot of good former Mbeki ministers and deputies out there pretending they’re having a fabulous time out of government.

One of them, I suspect, is Trevor Manuel. How long does Paul Mashatile have to do penance? Would Dlamini-Zuma bring them back or would JZ and the backroom boys pick key ministers for her?

My enthusiasm for Ramaphosa is based on his understanding of business and the vital role capital, black or white, plays in the economy. Someone needs to get money and investment flowing through the veins of the body politic and I can’t think of any candidate for Zuma’s job who has a better relationship with the business or “capital” elite.

In a way it was inspired to send Dlamini-Zuma to AU headquarters in Addis Ababa. It has kept her out of the steamy kitchen of local politics where mistakes can get made and reputations can get burned.

But, equally, it would be a mistake to leave her there until the last minute. If my friends are right and she is coming back as a sort of president-designate, she needs to start talking a little about South Africa again.

Our campuses are erupting with severe racial tension, business confidence is waning and the jobless queue is lengthening. What does she think about all these things? And does she know what she doesn’t know?

Running South Africa is a confidence game. Obviously, whatever the state of an economy, party leaders will almost always seek party unity above country. And Dlamini-Zuma would arguably find it easier to hold the ANC and its alliance together than Ramaphosa would.

But whatever the politics might look like, whatever the students might howl at the status quo, or the poor at the state, what matters is calm, paranoidfree leadership and a steady stream of confident private sector investment.