It’s all systems go for Sasol recovery
Despite a tough year, cost savings likely to deliver ‘solid’ earnings
SASOL has underperformed most of its peers over the year, but analysts believe the stock is about to bounce back as it is set to deliver a “solid” set of earnings tomorrow and bring in billions in cost savings during its 2016 financial year.
The petrochemicals company has struggled on the back of weak international oil prices, which have been falling for more than a year. It has announced job cuts, reduced capital expenditure and changed its dividend policy.
But a three-day rally in the oil price this week whet investors’ appetite for Sasol, and its share price rose more than 15%.
It has been a difficult year for Sasol shareholders. From a high in late April, the shares have dropped more than 23% to trade around R375.25 in the last week of August.
Over the same period, the JSE All Share index declined 13%.
Outgoing Sasol boss David Constable has a zeal for restructuring, but some analysts say the company, which employs more than 32 000 people, could still be viewed as being overstaffed.
A recent analyst report by JP Morgan read: “[Despite] Mr Constable’s cost-cutting, the new CEO will find a company still overstaffed in our view.
“We hope the new boss will retain Mr Constable’s realism regarding the need to adapt to changing circumstances and continue to restructure the business.”
In March, the company announced that 1 500 people would be leaving and that further job cuts were a possibility.
Constable leaves in May next year. It is still unclear who will take over. Sasol spokesman Alex Anderson said internal and external candidates were being considered.
During the year, Sasol countered the falling oil price with 5% sales growth in liquid fuels and 3% sales growth in performance chemicals, as well as 2% growth in basic chemicals. The group, which generates 52% of its revenue from South Africa, was also assisted by the weaker rand.
Expectations are that the company will announce lower earnings of between R8.42 and R11.43 a share for its 2015 financial year.
More than 53% of Bloomberg analysts rate the stock as a buy.
The drive in cost savings could result in Sasol adding between R4-billion and R5-billion to its bottom line in 2016.
But the big game-changer will be delivery of its mega-project at Lake Charles in the US.
“The real investment case for Sasol really depends on the cracker project in Louisiana. That’s three years out, but could be the game-changer,” said a Johannesburg analyst, who is invested in the company.
The falling oil price forced Sasol to delay the R14-billion gas-to-liquids plant it intended to build at Lake Charles, but the company is going to continue building the R8.9-billion ethane cracker project at the same complex.
If the oil price recovers among tighter supply in the US and some recovery in demand, analysts believe Sasol could again up its capex plans.
The biggest threat to Sasol’s long-term investment case would be taxes on carbon emissions. It produces 70 million tons of carbon dioxide.
It will be essential for the incoming CEO to start positioning the company itself for such an eventuality.
The JP Morgan report said the emissions “are a major potential liability for Sasol and in our view at some point in the next five to 15 years material taxes are likely to be levied on Sasol’s carbon emissions. The new CEO will need to position Sasol for this and unless domestic shale gas can be unlocked, Sasol will need to become more international/chemical and less South African/liquid fuel.”