Zuma is secure, but voters can still have a say about his future

GWEDE Mantashe, the curmudgeonly custodian of the ANC, this week all but cleared Jacob Zuma of all wrongdoing.

The organisation’s purported investigation into state capture by the Gupta family has been abandoned and ANC branches have apparently accepted Zuma’s so-called apology following the highly critical Constitutional Court decision on Nkandla.

And so Zuma can continue being Zuma. As it has been his wont, one can almost see Zuma doing a little jig in celebration. Not for the first time, he’s outmanoeuvred his enemies.

Exactly two months ago it looked as though he was at last about to be buried under the avalanche.

The Constitutional Court ruling on Nkandla dealt what should have been a devastating blow to Zuma in any political calculation. The two key institutions that Zuma had tried to undermine had emerged emboldened, in that the decision not only affirmed the undisputed powers of the public protector but had reinforced the independence of the judiciary. A chief justice who was supposed to be a lapdog stood up to be counted when it mattered.

There was a feeling of pride that, when put to the test, our institutions have come out with flying colours. And there’s no bigger test than challenging the actions and behaviour of the head of state. Reputations were thus enhanced, except Zuma’s.

The ruling that Zuma had breached the constitution triggered impassioned calls for his resignation, not only from the usual suspects but also from struggle stalwarts such as Ahmed Kathrada, Mavuso Msimang, Cheryl Carolus, et cetera.

This was significant. Such figures are loath to criticise their organisation in public. But here they were calling on their leader to fall on his sword. It seemed something was about to give.

And into the mix enter the Guptas, Zuma’s toxic friends. Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas had let it be known that he had been offered Nhlanhla Nene’s job while Nene was still finance minister. Jonas turned down the offer.

We now know, of course, that Nene was axed immediately thereafter and his job given to the little-known Des van Rooyen.

Jonas’s revelation was damaging to Zuma in that it simply fed into the public perception that he was, along with all the powers of state at his disposal, nothing but a useful pawn in the service of the powerful Gupta family. State capture became another addition to our political lexicon.

To those reading the tea leaves, the ANC was split down the middle, with Mantashe leading the anti-Zuma faction. He was no fan of the Guptas either. For instance, his criticism of the landing of the Gupta plane at Air Force Base Waterkloof had led to an official investigation of that episode. He also forcefully defended Jonas for having gone public with the Gupta allegation.

And so, when the ANC decided Mantashe should lead an investigation into state capture by the Guptas, many had assumed he would finally have all the evidence at his disposal to condemn Zuma.

We should have known better. It now seems it was a strategic retreat, or a face-saving measure. It was clear Zuma had prevailed even at that early stage.

The announcement this week means the whole thing has spluttered to a sorry mess. Zuma is wearing his characteristic grin, happy as a lark. His pleasure always turns out to be our displeasure.

Adding to his jollity is the fabulous news that the branches have “accepted” his apology.

Who, one wonders, has given these branches the right or authority to absolve the president of any wrongdoing? It is yet another confirmation that what we regard as our democracy is nothing but a nice little arrangement for the ANC to do as it pleases.

The Nkandla ruling seems to have ground to an unhappy ending. Zuma has once again dribbled everybody to a standstill. But it will be wrong to ascribe supernatural powers to him.

It is always easier to elect a leader than to dislodge one from power, even in democracies. Leaders sit at the top of the pile, everybody is at their beck and call and they have all the levers of power and violence at their command. Which is why dictators can stay in power for as long as they wish.

Also, the people who should evict Zuma from power owe their positions to him. They are not about to commit hara-kiri.

Our constitution also gives enormous powers to the president, for instance to appoint people to parastatals, judges and even individuals to those institutions that are supposed to safeguard our democracy, such as the public protector, the electoral commission, the auditor-general, et cetera. Only a fool would eschew exploiting such powers to his advantage. But there’s no need for despair. As is always the case in a democracy, the power is in your hands. The local government elections will allow us to glean a lot more — not only about Zuma’s fate, but also about the state of our democracy. Comment on this: write to tellus@sundaytimes.co.za or SMS us at 33971 www.sundaytimes.co.za