Brexit, already a drain, would ‘cost UK close to a million jobs’

PRO-EU forces have warned that if Britain votes to exit the union on June 23, the country could lose almost a million jobs. Recruiters say the damage has already begun.

“Companies are pushing the pause button,” said Kit Bingham, a partner at executive search firm Odgers Berndtson.

An Odgers poll last month found that a quarter of directors at FTSE 350 companies would consider relocating at least part of their business if voters approve a Brexit.

Even with a vote to stay, some harm was inevitable, economists said. The slowdown in hiring during the months of uncertainty before the poll would “come up in the GDP numbers”, said Swati Dhingra, an assistant professor at the London School of Economics. “There’s going to be a lag. It won’t recover overnight.”

Recruiter Randstad UK found that 17% of the 340 professionals it polled in May had frozen hiring, while 25% were turning to short-term contracts to fill jobs.

The recruiting slowdown “is having an impact right now”, said Andrew Likierman, dean of the London Business School.

In human resources, hiring was down by 28% in the first five months of the year, according to Digby Morgan, the Randstad unit that focuses on that field.

Polls predicting a close vote had contributed to the shift, said Tom Forrest, Digby Morgan’s MD. “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more everyone talks, the more everyone believes it. Our clients crave certainty.”

A vote to leave would hit financial services particularly hard. About 340 000 EU citizens work in the British finance sector, roughly 18% of the Europeans employed in the UK, according to data from the University of Oxford.

Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings have said they are likely to move some employees to the continent in the event of a vote to quit the union.

JPMorgan, the largest US bank, said it might move a quarter of its 16 000 British workers to Europe.

Tech companies were also putting projects on hold, which meant a slowdown in the hiring of software developers, IT architects and project managers, said Robert Grimsey, director of Harvey Nash, a recruiter that specialises in the sector. —