Riddle wrapped in a mystery topped by a toupee
STEVE Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone Group, who recently returned from South Korea, offers a polite answer to the question everyone keeps asking: “It’s very colourful.”
Henry Kravis, co-founder of KKR & Co, is blunt: “Nobody can figure it out.” And Don Marron, chairman of Lightyear Capital, captures what amounts to a collective shrug: “What do you say? ‘It’s a mystery’ is what you say.”
The question being thrown at US executives wherever they go is this: how did Donald Trump become a contender for the US presidency?
The answers, in public at least, are a mixture of genuine befuddlement and careful messaging, as Trump has gone from long shot to presumptive Republican nominee and is now closing the gap in national polls with Hillary Clinton, his Democratic counterpart.
By courting support largely from lowincome voters who feel left behind by economic forces, Trump has shaken up the 2016 race, caught executives by surprise and dominated the conversation in international business circles like no other US presidential candidate in recent memory.
Apart from Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos, who in December tweeted “#sendDonaldtospace” after Trump accused him of buying the Washington Post to keep his taxes down, few executives want to get in the middle of this contentious election season. Why risk offending customers, let alone Trump and his almost nine million Twitter followers, or Clinton and her supporters? They also don’t want to let politics dominate business discussions. WHAT THE . . .? US businessmen are bombarded by questions around the world about Donald Trump’s political campaign
Good luck with that. Privately, some executives say many colleagues and customers overseas are transfixed by the Trump phenomenon. One US banking official said he was bombarded with questions during a recent business trip to Hong Kong and Tokyo.
They asked “Can he become president? Is this literally possible?”, said the executive who, like many, spoke on the condition he not be named. That’s all they wanted to talk about.
Investors are only beginning to assess the impact of a Trump or Clinton win in November. At Pacific Investment Management’s secular forum last month — when the firm brought in Ben Bernanke, Jean-Claude Trichet and Gordon Brown to talk about the longterm economic and market outlook — they discussed Trump as a sign of rising anti-establishment sentiment in the US and Europe, said Pimco Group chief investment officer Daniel Ivascyn.
“We’re cautious long term. It’s not specific to Trump,” he said.
As a global media frenzy rages over Trump’s controversial statements — from attacking a federal judge for his “Mexican” background to a promise that he’d eliminate the $19-trillion (about R288-trillion) national debt — astonishment at the prospect of a Trump presidency appears to be growing by the day.
Bob Dudley, the CEO of BP, said queries about Trump, the man, crop up frequently but rarely does anyone ask about specific Trump programmes or policies. “There are lots of questions around the world, but it’s usually not about energy policy,’’ he said. “It’s just a natural curiosity.”
Christine Hurtsellers, the chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management, said that during a recent trip to Japan, she was asked about some of his contentious remarks. “Clients look at you like: ‘What are Americans thinking?’ ” she said. “International investors are certainly both curious and concerned about Trump’s rhetoric.”
Talk of Trump often provoked nervous laughter, said Allyson StewartAllen, CEO of International Marketing Partners, a consultant with offices in London and Los Angeles.
Still, some executives were getting anxious about a possible Trump presidency, said David Gallagher, the London-based CEO for Europe of Ketchum, the global public-relations firm.
“I’m getting . . . some varying levels of amusement to horror that it’s even a plausible scenario,’’ he said. “Usually I just say have faith in the system. Congress and the courts would balance out any wild variations in policy.”
Gallagher, who holds dual US and UK citizenship, likes to reassure executives with a bit of history.
“I sometimes paraphrase Winston Churchill: Americans usually do the right thing, but only after exhausting every other option.” — Bloomberg